The fears of opposition leader Walid Jumblatt and others that Syria may try to use assassination, espionage, and other destabilizing tactics to reclaim political power in Lebanon are justified, given Syria?s historical and recent behavior in Lebanon and the immense reluctance with which it withdrew its army. Although the plans for a Syrian return probably would not realistically involve the redeployment of its troops to Lebanon, a system of political manipulation based on intimidation, threats, bribes and other techniques can be expected from Syria. In this way, Syria may hope to maintain economic advantages it enjoyed in Lebanon, even its mafia-like activities. Estimates say the Syrian occupation of Lebanon may yielded Damascus over a billion dollars annually. This is not a loss that Syrian politicians are likely to swallow easily.

Further, as was likely the case in the assassination of journalist Samir Qaseer , Damascus may be afraid that Lebanon?s ?Intifada of Independence? may inspire Syrians to agitate against their own government?s oppressive policies within the country (WAR Report).