The terrorism news flowing from Indonesia has been fast and furious and regrettably multi-dimensional. Whereas Jemaah Islamiya (JI) remains the primary and most significant threat, a variety of recent developments suggest that the world’s most populous Muslim nation, which is still locked in the throes of democratization after 30+ years of dictatorship, continues to be plagued both by historical ethnic unrest and by evolving religious challenges. Additionally, despite significant success breaking up the JI cells involved in the Bali bombing of 2002 and the Jakarta Marriott Hotel bombing in 2003 , latest intelligence reports leaked to the vibrant and robust media suggest that another attack is imminent unless authorities are able to eliminate the threat posed by two key operatives. All told, the security posture and travel warnings across the archipelago will likely remain at their maximum through the month of June.

There is cause for cautious long-term optimism regarding Aceh separatist violence. Last week, the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) concluded its fourth round of peace talks with government representatives in Finland , and both sides publicly are pleased with the modest progress. However, the government’s refusal to allow GAM to organize a political party combined with its inability to restrain military squads resulting in the periodic deaths of GAM militants may actually reveal that only now are the peace negotiations grappling with the most contentious issues. Additionally, local leaders in Tsunami-ravaged territories complain that the uneven distribution of aid is fostering political instability, and rapid future progress on resolving Aceh issues is not expected.