Every time Coalition forces suffer a major setback in either Afghanistan or Iraq , journalists and commentators are quick to describe these conflicts as the next Vietnam . In reality, most of these comparisons have been fundamentally flawed because both Iraq and Afghanistan are unique challenges with numerous strategic operational and tactical differences from each other and from the Vietnam War. That said, there is at least one worrying trend that has marked similarities with a previous era and that is the propensity of the Bush administration, Department of Defense (DoD), and so-called ?outside? experts to declare regularly that the tide has turned against the insurgents . Each time there is a lull in insurgent activity or a ?successful? offensive concludes, it seems as if the champagne is already being put on ice and the date for the victory parade set. For example, late last year, many suggested that the offensive in Fallujah (Intel Report) would be the turning point of the war. Then, the lull in insurgent activity after the January 31 election was heralded with similar optimism. Most recently, the ongoing offensive close to the Syrian border and the capture or death of increased numbers of senior members of the insurgency has prompted some to announce that victory is in sight or that the insurgents are losing. Similarly, each upsurge in violence is often described as a desperate last throw of the dice of a cornered adversary lashing out in desperation.

Of course, official spokespersons are required to put a gloss on successes or setbacks, but this approach is a very dangerous strategy for the administration and DoD to adopt. The reality on the ground is that the Collation has made some progress in developing its operational art and tactics in order to counter the insurgency more effectively. Certainly, the election has helped, and many of the so-called former regime loyalists appear, at least for now, willing to negotiate secretly with the new Iraqi government and the Coalition rather than fight. However, there is a long way to go before stability has been restored and the reconstruction effort can switch into high gear.