Uzbekistan (see map) is one of the Central Asian states whose future is up for grabs. It could make progress toward secular democracy or slide toward becoming a pan-Islamic fundamentalist state. Currently, it is neither, but it is a rather authoritarian regime with a dubious human rights record, a poor economy, corruption, and religious intolerance. To a certain extent, Uzbekistan is like many other former Soviet states, trying to reassert a national identity and evolve into independent statehood. Throwing off the mantle of the old Soviet system has not been easy, especially considering the fact that, unlike other former Soviet states that are closer to Europe or have more of a resource base such as the Ukraine or Georgia , Uzbekistan has had less attention and a more difficult job of nation building. However, whether or not it is in danger of state failure, devolving into a terrorist haven, or simply turning into an Islamic over a secular state is up for speculation. There is a growing disenfranchisement with the regime by its populace, but how the repercussions will play out is still an unknown.

In Georgia and the Ukraine, and indeed even in Kyrgyzstan , disputed elections where the Moscow-preferred candidate was seen to have stolen the election have led to the so-called ?velvet revolutions? where citizens took to the streets and insisted on democratic order. The regime in power, however corrupt, was accused of folding under the pressure. These were not violent revolutions, but they were powerful ones. It is possible that citizens in Uzbekistan might follow suit. They may, however, be interested in a different style of government. Yet, while many are afraid of the rise of Islamic extremism in Central Asia, ironically, Uzbekistan is not the fulcrum of extremist belief and terrorist inclinations in the region. It is one of the countries in the region, which, were it not for the actions of its own government and the allure of external influences, would probably go down a more moderate path.