Not to rain on everyone?s parade, as the proverb goes, but the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon should be viewed with nearly as much trepidation as tribulation. While the Lebanese people, France, and the Bush administration may be overjoyed at the sight of the last Syrian troops marching back through the Bekaa Valley from whence they came some 14 years ago, there is a long road ahead before Lebanon develops into the stable, democratic, independent state the outside world is now picturing.

Relative success in Lebanon is a distinct possibility. At the very least, the economy should improve now that Syria?s mafia-like military presence is no longer draining up to US$1 billion a year from the country. The current optimism and exhilaration at having thrown out the occupying tyrant may even keep Lebanon?s historically volatile ethnic and religious groups focused, unified, and peaceful. On the balance, the Syrian withdrawal is a positive development, but Lebanon has now entered a new danger zone.