The public disclosure by Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain, a top Pakistani commander, that their counter-terrorism forces are searching for the ?signature? of the bodyguard entourage of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden might inadvertently compel bin Laden to tighten his physical security detail. This would make it more difficult for counter-terrorism forces to identify his whereabouts.

Hussain’s disclosure may compel bin Laden to maintain the size of his detail but to minimize his movements. Though his security entourage would be more difficult to recognize while entrenched, its static nature may prove advantageous to counter-terrorism forces in developing intelligence on a relatively fixed target. Bin Laden may also reduce the size of his security detail. While this tactic would reduce the security signature, bin Laden would likely become less secure and may enable counter-terrorism agencies to get closer to him, as his security perimeter is drawn in. Bin Laden may also be forced to modify his movement, thus potentially exposing the group. Finally, publicly declaring that counter-terrorism forces are focusing on the signature and machinations of bin Laden?s security detail may also be an intentional ploy to stoke paranoia within bin Laden?s ranks that might translate into a degradation of operational capabilities and efficiencies.

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