In an update to recent WAR Reports noting the evolving nature of the insurgency in Iraq to more cellularized groups likely to shift tactics, operations, and targeting preferences to pursue a strategy of undermining US and Iraqi governing agencies and structures, reconstruction initiatives, and security forces with the aim of driving the US and international forces out of Iraq, this weekend?s deadly bombings in the Shia holy cities of Najaf and Karbala , the attack against the US military dining hall , and a rash of targeted attacks?including assassinations?against election officials likely represent the opening salvo in an intense insurgent campaign to sabotage the January 30 election and possibly stoke sectarian conflict.

By sabotaging the elections, insurgents?most likely Sunni religious extremists, Hussein regime loyalists and Baathists, and foreign mujihideen and Islamic extremist terrorists?seek to cast Iraq into grave political and sectarian chaos, in turn providing a permissive environment for these elements to wrest greater power in pursuit of their goals. Recent intelligence suggests that these insurgent groups are likely to conduct more focused and targeted attacks to intimidate, terrorize, and ultimately cow into submission the more vulnerable elements of Iraqi society. In particular, insurgents will likely seek to target elements of society integral to, or collaborating with the US and Iraqi government?s state-building initiatives, notably the upcoming elections, economic reconstruction, and the development of competent indigenous security forces. As such, insurgent attacks have focused on security force recruits, politicians, and election officials and workers.