It should not be surprising news that Europe is likely to be the target of the next major al-Qaeda attack. To a certain extent, the Madrid train bombings the bombings against the British consulate and bank and synagogues in Istanbul can be seen as harbingers of this trend. Local people were used in these operations. These incidents taken together with arrests of terrorist cells, uncovered plots in several European countries , all signal that an attack campaign in the European theater is likely. While not all arrests and plots are necessarily al-Qaeda, such as the brutal daylight murder of filmmaker Theo Van Gogh , similar ideologies, mindsets, and sympathies could lead to increased franchising of al-Qaeda-type operations.

Saying that this trend could intensify when the militants who left Europe for Iraq return home more radicalized, however, must be qualified. Iraq is blamed for an increase in terrorism, but in reality, something has already gone off (in terms of radicalization and alienation) in those who are willing to take that step to fight against US and Coalition forces. The Iraq war is only two years old; the type of people who are radicalized underwent that transformation or were well on their way well before that conflict began. Iraq just became a rallying cry and a justification.