Despite the rather sporadic and confused public diplomacy efforts by the United Nations and others, the reports this past week of splits within the rebel groups of Darfur, Sudan (Country Profile) are a bad omen for the safety and security for the region. Moderate international appeasement policies may, in fact, be serving as the anvil upon which the Khartoum regime and its jihadist Janjaweed (Group Profile) militia hammer the western Sudanese civilians into submission.

In early 2004, the international community began to recognize the possibility that the violence targeting the Darfur region might be considered genocide. Subsequently, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan commissioned independent observers to investigate the claim. The United States, too, has sent delegations, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, to assess the threat to civilians (see September 15, 2004 WAR Report analysis ?Powell declares genocide in Sudan?). Additionally, the UN Security Council has scheduled a special session on Sudan to be held in Nairobi, Kenya later in November 2004. There have only been two such precedents in the history of Security Council and the move echoes Secretary Annan?s pledge to avert another genocide, especially in Africa, like the Rwanda massacre a decade ago. Finally, the African Union, among others, has not only pledged troops but has begun deploying security forces. Just this past week, Nigeria added 50 soldiers to a contingent, which will ultimately total some 550 soldiers. At the same time, Rwanda also sent the first 65 of over 230 troops. By November 30, 2004, some 3,320 African Union security forces are expected to be in place to augment 450 international observers, 2,300 non-African soldiers, and as many as 815 civilian police officers.