If a flu virus as deadly as the one that caused 1918 Spanish flu struck today, it could kill as many as 81 million worldwide, a new study estimates. By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million. That’s surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He’d done the analysis in part because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated. “We expected to end up with a number between 15 and 20 million,” said Murray. “It turns out we were wrong.” Full Story