The contention that Italy has come into the crosshairs of global jihadists is not a new revelation, given Italy’s support for the Global War on Terrorism and the efforts in Iraq . Further, threats to a Catholic cathedral in Cremona, the transit infrastructure in Milan, and police in Milan should also not come as surprising. Milan, in particular, has a sizable radical Islamist presence at its Islamic Cultural Institute. Numerous suspected Islamist jihadists have been arrested throughout Italy on charges of terrorism; however, all but two individuals have, thus far, been released. However, what was disrupted or thwarted cannot be measured easily. What is, however, odd is that only the German Deutsche Presse-Agenteur, picked up the story, without any other international press attention, notably none from Italy. This should be cause for hesitation and skepticism.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, Italy is “one of the most probable targets for al-Qaeda’s [Group Profile] next attack.” Curiously, Rome has found itself mirroring London prior to the attacks there . Rome continues to be a staunch supporter of the GWOT and the US-led invasion of Iraq, having already witnessed one beheading and various kidnappings of Italian citizens. And, much like the UK, Italy has now witnessed its own citizens traveling to Iraq to martyr themselves in suicide operations. Illegal immigration continues unabated and with very little immigration policy being implemented, while deportations are slowly taking place. Much like the precursor to the Madrid attacks , President Berlusconi maintains a precarious position of government that he might well lose should an attack hit Italy’s soil. Another change in government of a US ally due to a major attack would certainly yield fissures in the Coalition. Authorities have conducted raids and have arrested nearly 200 individuals, but that has hardly dented the Islamic community resident in northern Italy.
In this case study, various groups have vested interests in targeting Italy. This may be the perfect example of disparate groups working together for a common goal, despite differing internal dynamics and priorities. Groups with active cells already in Italy could include: the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM) , Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) , Ansar al-Islam , Takfir wal-Hijra , East African cells, among others. As a result, the Italian police have put over 13,000 sites and 700 individuals under police surveillance. Such a high number is daunting for the most focused, trained, equipped security forces. Safeguarding all of these sites is hardly reasonable; to be effective, authorities need comprehensive risk and threat assessments of what they perceive to be targets.
Attention on northern Italy is certainly warranted due to the upcoming Turin Olympics. Italian Justice Minister Roberto Castelli explicitly told Corriere della Sera? that he anticipated a terrorist attack in February due precisely to the Olympics and to the national elections, slated for April. Thus far, there have been no such plots uncovered in open sources. These pages will continue to underscore upcoming events and threats to the Games. On January 21, a Critical Mass bike ride is scheduled to take place in Turin. The coordinating group is an activist group that frequently causes traffic snares and has provoked confrontations with motorists. This ride criticizes Olympic sponsors and chastises the time and resources that could have gone toward “alternative transportation infrastructure” advancements. Rides will take place on the first Thursday of each month at 2100 hours and each third Saturday at 1630 hours at the Piazza del Municipio.
In the lead-up to the Games, these pages will continue to underscore security developments and threats of terrorism against the Games, its sponsors and attendees, and its host nation.