On December 27, 2005, three rockets were fired into the Israeli town of Kiryat Shimona from southern Lebanon, resulting in no casualties (see this WAR Report and Terrorist Incident). The event itself is an unfortunate banal occurrence for northern Israel; however, the claim of responsibility by Abu Musab Zarqawi?s ?Jemaat al-Tawahid wal Jihad? changes the attack into a significant event.
Zarqawi?s terrorist organization is currently aligned with Osama Bin Laden and uses the moniker ?Al Qaeda in the Land of Two Rivers? in its campaign of terror inside of Iraq . Should Zarqawi move east and launch al-Qaeda-inspired and directed attacks against Israel , it could have an explosive impact across the Middle East region. Previous rhetoric and actions of Bin Laden and Zarqawi indicate the January rocket attack was not arbitrary and that Israel could become an ever increasing target of al-Qaeda. Given the uncertain status of Israel?s political situation in the wake of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon?s incapacitation (WAR Report), the effects of such a campaign could provoke an excessively strong Israeli response.
In his communiqu?s, Bin Laden has consistently remarked on Israel?s criminal treatment of Palestinians, on the illegitimacy of the Israeli state, and on recapturing Jerusalem for Muslims as a stated goal. Furthermore, al-Qaeda elements are linked to attacks against Israelis tourists in the Sinai Peninsula , in Kenya (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident), and in Turkey . Zarqawi, as a Jordanian, has been focused historically on attacking in the Levant, including targets within Israel. In 2002, Turkish police intercepted operatives sent by Zarqawi and instructed to perpetrate operations on Israeli territory. The website attributed to his organization also announced that the ?separation wall [Israel?s security fence] will feel the might of the mujahidin.? Additionally, the intercepted letter of al-Qaeda?s Ayman al-Zawahri in July 2005 advised Zarqawi to target the following entities in order: American forces in Iraq; secular governments in the Middle East region, and ultimately Israel.
With the incapacitation of Prime Minister Sharon and the loss of his political leadership, the Israel psyche is in an acutely vulnerable state. Sharon acted as a security blanket for the Israeli populace; they had faith in his governmental response to terrorist acts. However, Sharon?s loss will make the effect of an attack?terrorizing the population?all the more amplified. Moreover, being subject to a campaign of terror by the notorious al-Qaeda, a relatively unknown enemy (as compared with Hamas , Islamic Jihad , Hezbollah ), could be a more unsettling situation for the terror-experienced Israeli public.
The Israeli government is determined to display strength and certitude amidst the chaos surrounding Sharon?s departure from office, to inspire confidence among Israelis and to dissuade their enemies from aggression. Thus, a series of attacks by al-Qaeda will likely be met by a firm Israeli response, including air strikes and military incursions into the terrorists? base of operations, likely northern Lebanon and the recently vacated Gaza Strip. Furthermore, both Iranian and Syrian interests could be targeted by Israel for their links with Zarqawi, including purported logistical and financial support against US forces in Iraq. It is also likely that any territorial concessions in the West Bank tied to the Palestinian peace process would be halted, as Israel would want to maintain a geographic buffer against rocket attacks.