The worst fears about the Avian flu reaching Europe?s borders seem now to have been realized. To a certain extent, there was almost an atmosphere of hysteria when the H5NI virus (WAR Report) was discovered in the West as a result of migrating birds last fall. Although fears of the Avian flu turning into a mass pandemic with a human-to-human jump has been a worldwide concern, for the most part, it was viewed as a disease that plagued Asia. With the westward migration of the virus to Russia , Turkey , Romania , and Greece , Europe has finally stood up and taken notice. There was major concern about having enough stocks of Tamiflu (WAR Report and WAR Report), and the nations affected started culling and quarantine zones. European government officials widely debated how to best to combat the spread of the virus, and, even across the Atlantic, there was great concern that the virus could spread, including a run on Tamiflu in some areas of the US. Yet, with no human fatality cases reported, it seemed that the quarantine and culling operations had worked, and there was a collective sigh of relief that this region had dodged a bullet. It appears now that this relief was premature.
With the dawning of the New Year, it appears that the deadly H5N1 strain has leaped to humans. Two children and third suspected from the same family in the remote village of Dogubayazit in eastern Turkey near the Armenian and Iranian border have died allegedly from the virus. Some 20 patients have been hospitalized with suspected cases of the virus in the same eastern border zone, most of them children. Authorities are investigating an additional 34 cases, but only 14 cases have been confirmed, thus far, by the World Health Organization. Authorities initially claimed that the virus was confined to an extended family that had close contact with infected poultry. Yet, suspected cases seem to be spreading beyond this region, appearing in the Black Sea region and in east and central Turkey. It even seems to be at the gates of the state capital, Ankara.
It should be remembered that the situation and information on the ground is uncertain and confusing, and confirmation has yet to be confirmed of these suspected cases. Turkish health authorities maintain that the virus is not passing person-to-person (the real fear that could trigger a pandemic) and is still passed from close contact with poultry. So far, this has not been proved otherwise but does not mean that has not or will not happen. Many in Turkey, especially in the affected regions, are angry at the government response. When the Avian virus first appeared in the region in October 2005, the Health Ministry claimed that 500,000 boxes of Tamiflu were shipped to the region, but local physicians said they did not have the dosages in time and had to scrounge for them. If Tamiflu or other anti-virals are not administered in time, then they may not work. While more Tamiflu is now available, many question if it would be enough in a major outbreak, and many people in these remote areas feel that they have been neglected. Whatever the criticism, the important thing will be whether the Turkish authorities can prevent further deaths and spread of infection. It is a very precarious situation that could go either way, and the international community will be watching and preparing for how the Turks deal with the possible spread of the Avian virus.
