Although the BBC article on Nigerian oil thieves kept that country in headlines around the globe last week, the far bigger story of the region developed over the holiday break. In the early hours of December 20, 2005, militants struck an oil pipeline in the oil-rich Niger Delta region , spilling burning oil into waterways, forcing the evacuation of 21 villages, and prompting a local halt in oil production, which reduced the country’s output by 170,000 barrels a day?7% of Nigeria’s normal output. Since Nigeria is the world’s sixth biggest exporter of crude oil, the impact of the attack, and others like it, is significant. In October 2004, protests and kidnappings in the region helped drive world prices for oil to over $50 per barrel for the first time (see October 6, 2004 WAR Report article “Nigerian military goes on offensive against rebels in oil region”). As noted in last week’s 2006 WAR Report forecasts, instability in Nigeria coinciding with Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the US oil industry pushed crude prices up to $60 per barrel and helped drive American gasoline prices upward of $3.50 per gallon in the fall of 2005. An examination of some of the other political vulnerabilities of Nigeria will unfortunately not inspire much confidence that market stability will return soon.
The oil thefts described by the BBC have become endemic across the Niger Delta region and, in fact, are symptomatic of a largely rural and economically disadvantaged and ethno-linguistically distinct province. There is widespread distrust and outright anger among the Ijaw people toward both the government and the multi-national oil companies, which are seen to be profiting significantly from local oil revenues but failing to redistribute or at least reinvest back into the economy. Militancy among the Ijaw has increased over the past decade when a new generation began coalescing into an Ijaw Youth movement . Elements of the wider movement formally convened the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) via the Kaima Declaration on December 11, 1998. A former IYC leader, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari , subsequently went on to lead the Niger Delta People?s Volunteer Force (NDPVF) , which has subsequently been outlawed; now Dokubo-Asari sits in prison, awaiting trial on treason charges. Most notably, it is the previously unknown and self-proclaimed NDPVF breakaway faction, the Martyr’s Brigade , which claimed credit for the December 20, 2005 pipeline attack.
To close the analytic circle, significant numbers of Nigerian troops had been deployed to the Delta in response to the pipeline attack and the growing Ijaw unrest at the charges and pending arrest against Bayelsa Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. The Governor, who had established residence London, skipped bail on embezzlement and money-laundering charges in November 2005 and fled from the United Kingdom to Nigeria where sitting elected officials cannot face criminal charges. The Nigerian federal government is simultaneously applying pressure on Alamieyeseigha by rallying support among his critics for an early vote and by generally increasing the security posture across Bayelsa. Thus, it was the recent active deployment of several hundred soldiers that resulted in the deaths of the oil thieves last week.
Although the analytic emphasis has been to discuss violence and countermeasures of the Niger Delta, Nigeria faces significant opposition after the arrest of separatist leader Ralph Uwazurike of Movement for the Actualisation of a Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) in November 2005 on treason charges. Evictions of government workers from public housing in the Lagos sparking humanitarian outrage and the amnesty and early release of nearly half the country’s overpopulated prisons threaten to destabilize many urban areas in early 2006. In short, political security and economic security analysts alike would be well advised to keep a keen eye on Nigeria in the coming months. Finally, regional and international governments may be asked or otherwise prompted to offer support for this vibrant, though struggling, country over the next 12 months.