The al Qaeda evolution (see this WAR Report) and the phenomenon of emergent, homegrown ?vanguard outpost? seems to present a particular near-term threat in relation to Europe’s aggrieved, alienated, and radicalized Muslim and immigrant communities.
Parallel to, and feeding into, al Qaeda?s evolution and expansion, seems to be a building and seething cocktail of perceptions of social inequality, alienation, and political grievance among the Muslim immigrant communities of Europe vis-?-vis their governments and ?indigenous? European societies. These sentiments have the potential to provide fertile soil for the radicalization and rallying of politically and socially-motivated violence, and, with it, the potential for Islamist militancy and terrorism to take root. These societal and political grievances seem to provide many of the underlying motivations for recent political violence and terrorism in Europe and the emergence of ?vanguard outpost? groups: from the Madrid and London (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident) subway bombings, to the assassinations and death threats from Islamist terrorists against public figures and politicians in the Netherlands , to the recent riots among the young descendents of immigrants in France .
Muslim immigrant communities to various degrees perceive that a number of abuses have been perpetrated against them by the government and/or the wider indigenously ?European? society?at the personal level of social inequality and/or xenophobia, at the minority community level of persecution, and/or at the global level of perceiving the nation?s policies to be abusive to the global Muslim community. In addition, the second and third generation descendants of Muslim immigrants may be caught in a crisis of identity between fraying ties and sense of identity to their ancestral homeland versus perceiving that they are not fully integrated as European citizens. For individuals experiencing a wayward, frustrated identity, coupled with wider feelings of alienation and grievance, the allure of the ?heroic? identity, camaraderie, belonging, and purpose to be found in the membership of violent political groups may serve as a powerfully enticing path of emancipation and empowerment. Indeed, particularly resonant within this climate may be the Islamist/Salafist/jihadist ideologies and militancy professed by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.
These perceptions and feelings among Muslim immigrant communities of social inequality, grievance, and alienation?engaged by the resonance of al Qaeda and like militant Islamist ideologies?represent the key conditions and dynamics at play in the cultivation of European-based jihadist ?vanguard outpost? groups. Further, these same dynamics seem to catalyze the creation of a permissive and supportive societal environment for ?al Qaeda? terrorist groups and their ilk to flourish.
Of particular concern is that the Madrid and London bombings, the assassinations in the Netherlands, and the riots in France represent early eruptions of similarly volatile societal climates among immigrant communities throughout Europe also seething with discontent and grievances against their government and wider societies. These communities, too, may be on the verge of rebellion. Further, Islamist militant and terrorist groups may specifically seek to exploit the Muslim immigrant community unrest and grievances to recruit and seek operational support for jihadist activities. Particularly concerning for counter-terrorism officials is the potential leveraging of European conduits to Iraq and Afghanistan to provide either training tours for European-based militants to learn ?state-of-the-art? terrorist tradecraft or the deployment of veterans from these fronts to establish, participate in, or otherwise offer their battlefield-honed expertise to European cells and operations.
