Highlights
-Verdicts reached in trials of 289 Saudi nationals and 41 foreigners for membership in a ‘deviant group’
-Trials suggest kingdom’s anti-terror campaign is on track and represents precedent for how al Qaeda suspects will be treated in the future
-Al Qaeda reprisal attack unlikely in near to medium term
On July 8, 2009, Saudi Arabian authorities revealed that a specialized criminal court had issued verdicts in the country’s first known terrorist trials for accused al Qaeda militants. According to Saudi Arabia’s state television, the rulings involved 330 suspects in 179 cases. Of the 330 tried, 289 were Saudi nationals and 41 were foreigners.
During the trials, which began in December 2008, seven individuals were acquitted of all charges, while 323 were found guilty of belonging to a ‘deviant group,’ a euphemism for al Qaeda, and supporting the financing of terrorism. One militant was given the death sentence, while others were given less harsh punishments, including jail time, house arrest, being banned from traveling outside of the country, and being fined. The verdicts were the first against suspects detained for al Qaeda’s terrorism campaign inside of the kingdom.
The trials represent a continuation of Saudi Arabia’s aggressive campaign against militants that began in 2003, when al Qaeda first began attacking targets inside of the kingdom. We believe an al Qaeda reprisal attack is unlikely given their weak position inside of the country. The trials do, however, represent an important precedent for how al Qaeda suspects will be treated in the kingdom. The lenient sentences are unlikely to deter individuals from joining the organization.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
In 2003, the group called al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) began a violent campaign to destabilize the Saudi royal family. Militant attacks included suicide bombings at housing compounds in Riyadh in 2003 and an attempt to storm the world’s biggest oil processing plant at Abqaiq in 2006, the last militant operation of note.
Since 2006, AQAP has not been implicated in any attacks in Saudi Arabia, mostly due to its declining strength due to crackdowns by the Saudi government. In late January 2009, AQAP merged with al Qaeda in Yemen (AQY), suggesting the weakening of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and the strength of the Yemeni branch – the Saudi branched pledged allegiance to AQY, suggesting that the reorganization was not a merger of equals. Instead, the pledge of allegiance to AQY reveals that the Saudi branch had been significantly weakened and that little substantial organizational infrastructure remains in the country.
Continuing Crackdown
Saudi Arabia’s fight against al Qaeda terrorism is far from over. In the past month alone, at least six al Qaeda suspects were arrested. One of the individuals arrested had connections with al Qaeda affiliates outside of the country and engaged in a firefight with Saudi security forces prior to his arrest. The five other individuals arrested were detained in Taif the day after the verdicts were issued in the terrorism trials.
The arrest of these six individuals is likely to yield additional al Qaeda members in Saudi Arabia as a result of interrogations by Saudi security forces.
Lenient Sentences Expected in Future Trials
According to Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz, as of October 2008, the kingdom had indicted 991 suspected al Qaeda militants, more than 660 of who are still awaiting trial. The Ministry of Justice has said that plans are under way for subsequent trials of the remaining militants.
We expect similarly lenient sentences in future trials. These sentences are unlikely to deter individuals from joining the organization, thus likely increasing al Qaeda’s ability to recruit inside of the kingdom.
Despite this, we do not expect attacks inside of the kingdom in the near term due to al Qaeda’s weakened status in the country and due to the ongoing crackdown and arrests of suspected al Qaeda members.
