Highlights
-Six Federal agents, two soldiers die in La Familia attacks
-Key cartel leader arrested, headed to Mexico City for hearing
-Violence to intensify in the near-term, additional military deployments in Michoacan and Mexico City likely
On July 11, 2009, heavily armed gunmen traveling in several convoys threw grenades and opened fire on police stations in Morelia. Additionally, gunmen coordinated separate attacks across the states of Michoacan, Zitacuaro, Zamora, Patzcuaro, and Huetamo and Apatzingan. Five federal agents and two soldiers were killed while ten others were wounded in the ambushes.
The attacks were likely in retaliation for the arrest of Arnoldo Rueda Medina, an alleged member of La Familia drug cartel. Medina was captured only minutes before the assaults took place. The recent attacks represent the boldest frontal offenses by organized crime groups against the federal government in Mexico since the anti-trafficking campaign began in 2006. We expect the level of violence will intensify rapidly in Michoacan, as the government continues sweeps to root out corruption in the state for the near to medium-term.
Retaliation Spreads Across Western Mexico
Medina was captured in Morelia shortly before 0500h on July 11, 2009. Minutes later, more than two-dozen assailants tossed fragmentation grenades and opened fire on federal police offices at the site where Medina was being held.
The attacks were an attempt to rescue Medina, who is the alleged head of operations under reputed La Familia leaders Nazario Moreno Gonzalez and Jose de Jesus Mendez Vargas. Both men are on Mexico’s most wanted list. Three agents were injured in the ambush before officers were able to secure the precinct. Medina remains in custody.
Between the hours of 0500 and 0900 a number of reprisal attacks were staged against agents federal and state police across Michoacan. The following cities faced coordinated attacks:
•In Zitacuaro, a popular tourist destination known for its Monarch butterfly nesting grounds, three federal agents were killed.
•In Zamora two soldiers were fatally shot. Officers were also wounded in attacks in, Patzcuaro, and Huetamo.
•In Apatzingan, gunmen shot at a hotel where federal agents were staying.
•A number of gunmen ambushed police patrol cars along a highway between Morelia and the port City of Lazaro Cardenas. Two federal agents were killed and three others were wounded in the ambush.
•Two attacks also took place just beyond the state’s borders.
Medina and two suspects later captured during the violent spree are to be escorted to Mexico City in the coming days for presentation before the federal prosecuting office in charge of organized crime. We believe additional attacks may take place in Mexico City, as the three wait for their hearings. We expect members of La Familia may again attempt to rescue Medina from his high-security holdings in the coming days.
Michoacan as the Front Line
When President Felipe Calderon took office in December 2006, Morelia, Michoacan was the first site where troops were deployed at the beginning of his anti-trafficking campaign. The platform expanded to include approximately 45,000 troops throughout Mexico, in cartel hotbeds such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. More recently, in May 2009, Calderon again decided Michoacan would be the front line in a new phase of the drug war, which targeted the political supports to organized crime activities.
•In May 2009 federal authorities arrested 10 mayors and 17 government and political officials for alleged connections to drug cartels, particularly La Familia. Many of the attacks on July 11 took place in towns where federal forces carried out the political sweeps.
Far From Over
The renewed government focus on the political networks that support prominent drug groups, especially in Michoacan, will likely intensify violence in the region for the foreseeable future. President Calderon will likely dispatch additional troops to Michoacan in the near-term, possibly depressing violence in specific locations.
However, the July 11 incidents represent the boldest frontal offenses by organized crime groups against the federal government since Calderon’s platform began.
We believe the extent of deep-rooted political corruption, specifically in Michoacan, will pose a challenge for federal operations, more than existed in other cartel-controlled areas, such Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana for the medium to long-term.
