Highlights
-Security forces arrest 26 al-Qaeda-linked militants for plotting to attack oil pipelines and ships transiting the Suez Canal
-Militants were awaiting instructions from al-Qaeda operative abroad
-Attack plots against tourist locations to increase in near to medium-term
Tourist locations remain a popular target for aspiring al-Qaeda militants in Egypt.
In the latest thwarted plot, 25 Egyptians and one Palestinian were arrested on July 9 for plotting attacks on oil pipelines and ships traversing the Suez Canal. The militants were arrested in Cairo, Alexandria and Daqahlia. The group was allegedly in contact with the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Army of Palestine, which has been implicated in the February bombing of the Cairo bazaar, Khan el Khalili, wherein a French tourist was killed . Egyptian authorities claim that many of the 26 suspects are engineers and technicians and that they had been communicating with foreign terror groups, including affiliates of al-Qaeda, over the Internet and using jihadist websites to study procedures for the production of explosives.
Authorities claim the suspects confessed that they were waiting for further instructions from an al-Qaeda operative living abroad before conducting the attacks. Police have accused the group of plotting to conduct car bombings, likely using the relatively simple and commonplace tactic of remote detonation via cellular technology. Additionally, it appears the group’s intended targets included foreign ships and oil pipelines that run under the canal.
It appears that the al-Qaeda linked operatives had been planning for the operation for several months. Given the economic significance of Egypt’s Suez Canal, it is unsurprising that al-Qaeda chose to target the installation. As al-Qaeda’s reach grows deeper, we expect an increase of al-Qaeda-linked militants to surface in Egypt. We believe militants will continue to plot against tourist venues and other symbolic targets in Egypt in the near to medium-term.
Significance of Suez Canal
It comes as little surprise that al-Qaeda militants sought and are likely still seeking to target ships passing through the Suez Canal. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the Suez Canal and the nearby Suez-Mediterranean pipeline is one of the world’s seven most important transit points for oil. Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf travel through the canal primarily to European ports, but also to the US. More than 3,000 oil tankers pass through the Canal every year, generating 25 percent of the Canal’s total revenue.
As al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden made clear to his affiliates in December 2004, oil and gas installations constitute primary attack targets (Previous Report). Bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, stated two years later that jihad fighters should focus on Western economic targets, as one of al-Qaeda’s goals is to breakdown the economic fabric of America and the West (Previous Report). Egypt’s Suez Canal would fall under this description, as millions of barrels of oil are transported through the canal each year. We believe the Canal will remain a valuable target for militants in the region in the near to medium-term.
Terror in Egypt to Grow
Egypt has experienced some terror attacks that have led to casualties in the recent past – the February bazaar bombing in Cairo – Egypt has not generally experienced the sort of dramatic, large-scale attacks that this group appeared to be plotting (Previous Report). This can be attributed to the vigilance, and repressiveness, of the Egyptian state security services. As such, and due to the reach of the Egyptian state security, most plots of this nature in the country are likely to be detected in advance.
We note that foreign terror groups are continuing to attempt to infiltrate and coordinate with aggrieved local groups in Egypt to plot attacks. Such has also been the case in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and other places. Similar incidents have usually been the forerunner of more and larger attacks.
We believe security forces will likely foil a number of other terrorist plots in the coming months, as militants have demonstrated an increased sophistication and knowledge to carry out attacks in Egypt. We believe the number of al-Qaeda sympathizers, as well as linked militants, will continue to grow in the near to medium-term.
