Highlights
– Militant activity increases in secularist Tunisia
– Two of the militants are Tunisian military soldiers and planned to carryout attack during joint exercises between Tunisia and US
– We anticipate additional terrorist plots to surface in the near to medium-term, as security forces investigate the matter further
On July 6, 2009 Tunisian authorities arrested nine men, including two Tunisian Air Force officers, for plotting to kill United States (US) servicemen taking part in joint military exercises in Tunisia.
The court charged the nine with incitement to carry out terror attacks, attempting to acquire weapons and explosives for a terror organization – likely al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – and using Tunisian soil to recruit people for a terror organization. The two officers were charged with trying to embezzle weapons and explosives from the base to use in an attack against the American officers.
As a long-standing partner with the US in the fight against terrorism, US servicemen visit Tunisia periodically for military training and joint military drills with the Tunisian army. However, this is the first time Tunisian officers have attempted to target American servicemen.
Over the past few years, Tunisia has been cracking down on radical Islamists, jailing more than 1,000 people. Many of these extremists planned to join insurgents in Iraq to fight US-led forces and others were part of the AQIM. In recent months, however, Tunisian militants and AQIM sympathizers have engaged in terrorist activities, such as the kidnapping of two Austrian tourists in March 2008. We believe AQIM militants will likely recruit Tunisian members in the near term, as Tunisian militants have displayed the desire to target Americans. We anticipate similar terror plots will surface in North African countries in the near to medium-term.
The Tunisian Secularist Factor
Tunisia’s government has followed an exceptionally secularist policy in modern history, which has not been sympathetic towards any form of political religious expression. Other countries in North Africa are more tolerant towards Islamism to some extent, yet Tunisia has shown a willingness to suppress these voices. Nonetheless, radical extremism exists in Tunisia and subscribers to this doctrine have found their way into the fabric of Tunisian society.
Moreover, Tunisia’s long-time partnership with the US in fighting terrorism has angered radical extremists, emboldening many to join forces with other like-minded individuals, such as members of AQIM. Although few attacks have taken place in Tunisia in recent years, we believe the potential for such attacks has increased following the recent plot. As a result, we anticipate AQIM will recruit members from within Tunisia to carryout terrorist attacks throughout North Africa in the near to medium-term.
Separatist Islamists Increase and Come Together
A growing number of radical extremists are surfacing in countries throughout North Africa and even Central Africa, willing to independently fight against Western forces and interests in their county. With the lack of organization, adequate capabilities, and leadership, these individuals are unable to successfully carry out large-scale terrorist attacks. However, their desire to inflict harm and destruction on the “infidels” gives them an easy entrance into well-organized, highly capable terrorist groups, such as AQIM.
We believe the recent terror plot will enable AQIM, and other organized terrorist groups, to tap into Tunisia’s rejuvenated recruitment pool. As a result, we anticipate further attacks across North Africa in the near to medium-term.
