Highlights
– Operation Khanjar first major operation under President Obama
– Main goal is to clear Taliban from targeted areas
– US military orders a “clear and hold” strategy
On July 2, 2009 the United States (US) launched a major military offensive in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan. The operation, dubbed Khanjar or “Strike of the Sword,” consists of nearly 4,000 Marines and 650 Afghan troops, backed by US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) aircraft. The offensive represents the first major operation under President Barack Obama and the new strategy to stabilize Afghanistan.
In the coming weeks and months, fighting in Helmand province is likely to be intense at times, but mostly sporadic. Helmand is a major Taliban stronghold and the world’s largest opium poppy-producing area, indicative that the Taliban will not give up the area easily. The Taliban are unlikely to directly engage the large Marine force in the area, but resort to roadside bombings and other guerrilla-style attacks. Such tactics have been the main feature of the Taliban campaign against the US and NATO forces, and unlikely to change as militants attempt to counter the latest offensive in Helmand.
Helmand River Valley Remains Taliban Heartland
Despite more than seven years of fighting, the NATO mission in Afghanistan has reached a stalemate. Attacks throughout Afghanistan have reached record levels, suggesting that the Taliban remain a deadly fighting force. Operation Khanjar was launched as a response to the growing number of attacks conducted by the Taliban. The operation also offers a glance at the US military’s new strategy to stabilize the country.
The primary goal of the Operation Khanjar is to clear Taliban militants from Helmand province before the country’s August 20, 2009 elections. The operation is intended to seize almost the entire lower Helmand River valley, the area that remains the heartland of the Taliban insurgency and production of opium. Nawa and nearby Garmsir, located close to Helmand’s capital Lashkar Gah, are key targets in the operation, primarily because the areas are a major refuge point for Taliban militants. US commanders hope the offensive will turn the tide in the current stalemate against the Taliban and convince locals that NATO forces are winning the battle against militants.
New Strategy, Clear and Hold
The tactics and goals of Operation Khanjar mark the new approach the US is taking in Afghanistan, as the military has publicly announced the Marines will “clear and hold” the target areas in Helmand. The tactics are contrary to many previous operations in southern Afghanistan, where soldiers would clear areas and withdraw a short time later – only to have Taliban militants return later to control the area.
Fighting over the next several months will determine whether there are enough Marines and Afghan soldiers to stabilize the Afghan population in Helmand. Improving security and establishing a presence will be medium to long-term goals of the US military in Helmand and surrounding provinces. Without establishing a clear presence, improving security, and rebuilding infrastructure, locals will continue to distrust NATO and refuse to reject the Taliban in favor of the central government.
Taliban’s Operation Foladi Jal
In response to Khanjar, the Taliban announced the commencement of Operation Foladi Jal. The Taliban operation is meant to counter the joint US and Afghan assault in Helmand province.
The Marines have thus far only faced light and sporadic resistance, suffering only one casualty. In the outset of Khanjar, the Taliban chose to withdraw rather than engage. However, the announcement of Foladi Jal indicates that the Taliban are prepared to step up attacks. The Taliban are likely to employ the tactics they often use, such as suicide attacks, hit-and-run assaults on isolated units and security checkpoints, and use of roadside bombs. The delay in the Taliban counter-offensive is likely attributed to the group’s attempt to determine whether the US is prepared to stay in the target areas in Helmand.
As Foladi Jal begins in the coming days and the US military moves deeper into more populated areas of Helmand province, casualty figures from both sides are likely to increase.
Outlook
Success in the near-term would be the removal of Taliban militants from the targeted areas in Helmand, while long-term success will be determined by Afghan security forces and police providing security. However, achieving any of these goals will not be an easy task, as the province remains the center of the Taliban insurgency and its major source of income, opium.
The results of Operation Khanjar will prove instrumental in future US offensives in Afghanistan. Lessons learned in the Helmand operation will likely be applied to future offensives in other parts of the country, such as in Khost or Kunar provinces, where the insurgency has intensified. However, quick results from the operation are unlikely, as Operation Khanjar will likely last for months and casualties from both sides likely to increase.
Continued focus will be placed on establishing a long-term presence in hostile areas to provide security for locals and add legitimacy to the central government. Decreasing public support for the Taliban at the expense of increasing support for the central government will be vital in stabilizing Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban.
Limited resistance and only sporadic clashes between Marines and Afghan militants is likely only the calm before the storm. Operation Foladi Jal will be implemented in the coming days, as the Taliban reassesses current US strategy. We expect intense fighting in areas in and around Helmand province in the coming weeks. Operation Khanjar will constitute the first major test of the new clear and hold strategy. Its success or failure will likely dictate the future of the US’s involvement in Afghanistan.