Highlights
– Honduran military exiles President Zelaya to Costa Rica
– International community chooses not to recognize de facto regime
– Civil unrest to continue in the near-term, likely to escalate as tensions rise in Tegucigalpa
On June 30, 2009 President Zelaya announced he would return to Honduras alongside Organization of American States’ (OAS) Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza, despite the military coup that displaced him over the weekend. The coup provoked nearly universal condemnation from Western governments, and sparked violent clashes throughout Tegucigalpa.
As Zelaya attempts to reenter Honduras as acting President in coming days, we expect domestic and international tension to escalate, possibly resulting in violent civil unrest and international recourse. Congress will remain obstinate to Zelaya’s demands, but may concede as international pressures weigh down on the de facto regime in the near-term.
Constitutional Dissent
Zelaya, a leftist leader and ally to personalities such as Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, was ousted while attempting to institute a referendum gauging public interest in altering Honduras’ presidential term limit. Despite objections from his Liberal Party and a Supreme Court ruling declaring the measure illegal, Zelaya persisted with the referendum vote to proceed on June 28, 2009.
At 0400h on June 28, 2009 soldiers surrounded the presidential palace in Tegucigalpa and arrested Zelaya. He was delivered to Costa Rica, where he had not requested political asylum. Honduran deputies ultimately named Roberto Micheletti, head of Congress, as acting president.
• The de facto rule has imposed an “indefinite” curfew in Tegucigalpa, as well as a media blackout, preventing international newspapers from circulating, blocking access to Internet news sites, and international cable television news networks.
International Reaction
Zelaya’s ouster garners international attention throughout the world.
Hugo Chávez committed to put troops on alert and highlighted, “If they attack our ambassadors, they will be declaring a state of war. If they have weapons, then we have weapons, too.” Rafael Correa also claimed his government would participate in military action against Honduras if its diplomats or those of its allies were threatened. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva argued in his weekly radio program, “We can’t accept or recognize any government other than Zelaya’s…if Honduras doesn’t reverse its position, then it’s going to be totally isolated in the middle of an enormous contingent of democracies.”
The United States reinforced its recognition of Zelaya as the constitutional president of Honduras. US diplomats are currently working to coordinate Zelaya’s safe return to the country.
Elsewhere, OAS officials strongly condemned the coup in public statements, while the president of the General Assembly of the United Nations, Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann, called the Honduran military’s intervention a “criminal action.”
Despite domestic and international demands, Micheletti remains defiant towards Zelaya’s reinstatement, arguing he pushed Honduras too far to the left. The legislature will likely sustain its resistance for the near-term. If Venezuela or other nations do attempt to act in support of Zelaya, congressional leaders may pose the measures as evidentiary to its anti-left position, further isolating Zelaya.
Civil Unrest to Continue in Coming Days
Several thousand Hondurans, including youths, teachers and workers, gathered near the presidential palace early June 29, 2009, vowing to occupy the zone until the President returned. Supporters burned tires and set up barricades using bricks, stones and metal signs. Many used sticks, stones and clubs to defend against riot forces, who eventually began firing M-16 rifles into the air and deployed tear gas at groups of demonstrators.
Officials from the International Committee of the Red Cross were present treating dozens of wounded. Unofficial reports indicated at least two people might have died during the incidents.
• Further heightening tensions in the capital are recent reports suggesting the military also detained Honduran Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas. Other such accounts are likely to surface, and may be used to fuel regional response in the near to medium-term.
Although the military has been able to secure many government buildings in the capital, we believe there will be intensified civil unrest as Zelaya presses to reassume power in Honduras. Blockades are likely to continue, causing large-scale traffic disruptions for the near-term. The brunt of the violence will remain in the few blocks from surrounding the presidential palace, likely affecting businesses continuity in the area.
We do not foresee Congress permitting Zelaya back into the executive office. However, elected officials may concede as international pressures weigh down on the de facto regime in the near-term.
