Highlights
– Second week of protests in Iran have become increasingly violent
– Protestors desire change within the scope of the current system
– Fissures within political institutions could lead to replacement of Ayatollah Khamenei
For the past two weeks, hundreds of Iranians have been protesting the results of the June 12 presidential elections where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the victor among allegations of electoral fraud. Since then, the protests have become increasingly violent, with unconfirmed reports claiming tens of deaths. Additionally, the Guardian Council, a 12-man body which must ensure that all laws passed by the Majlis (Parliament), agree with Islamic Sharia law and Iran’s constitution, has confirmed allegations of electoral fraud in at least 50 of the 366 total electoral districts. Despite this announcement, the Guardian Council has maintained its support for Ahmadinejad’s reelection, causing increased anger.
Although the demonstrators are upset by the state of politics in the Islamic Republic, we do not believe most desire a systematic change, but rather change within the structure of the current system. We believe this desire could be achieved by the dismissal of Ahmadinejad as president and possibly, the replacement of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Fissures in the Regime
The persistence of the opposition movement and disunity among the powerful clerics are revealing cracks within the Iranian regime. On Friday, June 19, Ayatollah Khamenei addressed the nation during Friday prayers. In this address he called for national unity and acceptance of Ahmadinejad’s victory, denying all allegations of electoral fraud. On Monday, in direct contrast to Khamenei’s pronouncements, the Guardian Council admitted that the number of ballots in 50 districts exceeded the number of legal voters in those areas. Open disagreement with the Supreme Leader is rare and is indicative of the peoples’ power because they have shown their resolve and determination to achieve results they desire, thus frightening the Guardian Council into some form of submission.
The brief arrest of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani’s relatives is also indicative of growing fissures within the regime. Rafsanjani is the head of both the Assembly of Experts, which is made up of senior clerics who can elect and dismiss the supreme leader, and the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council and can block legislation. These positions make Rafsanjani one of the country’s most influential officials. Disagreement between Rafsanjani and the ruling elite is likely to cause increased difficulty for the regime due to his elevated position of power.
We note that neither Rafsanjani nor former President Mohammad Khatami, an influential reformist, were present at Khamenei’s Friday sermon – suggesting a rift between Khamenei and the former presidents. Both have criticized Khamenei’s decision to crackdown on the demonstrators.
Finally, the Iranian parliament, through its speaker Ali Larijani, has called for a thorough investigation of the violence perpetrated by members of the Basij, a paramilitary force founded by Ayatollah Khomeini which receives orders from the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader, and the police forces. We note that questioning the actions taken by the Basij is tantamount to questioning Khamenei himself, the ultimate authority in Iran.
Evidence indicates that friction exists between Khameni and influential reformers. The fact that all of these individuals challenging Khamenei have profound respect for both the Supreme Leader and the Islamic system yet still criticize Khamenei’s decisions indicate growing frustration with his policies and bias towards Ahmadinejad.
Khamenei’s Possible Yet Unlikely Replacement
We believe the growing frustration towards Khamenei could result in his replacement, rather than the dissolution of the Islamic Republic – mostly because the main opposition leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Rafsanjani, were the engineers of the Islamic revolution and would never destroy their project. Thus, the only alternative is to replace Khamenei and set a new path for the republic.
The Iranian constitution allows for the Supreme Leader to be dethroned through the Assembly of Experts, headed by Rafsanjani. We believe that religious clerics in Qom and members of the Assembly are mulling the formation of an alternative to Khamenei, be it another Supreme Leader or a collective leadership. One alternative could be Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, an influential cleric who has been publicly critical of Ahmadinejad and the regime’s handling of the elections. Montazeri’s willingness to speak more openly and forcefully indicates that the clerical establishment is split and is tilting away from Khamenei.
We believe it is unlikely Khamenei will be ousted unless there is a catalyst for increasingly violent and volatile protests, for example, Mousavi’s arrest or assassination. As those in power generally seek to maintain their power, we do not believe Khamenei is likely to allow this to happen. Even if he is not dismissed, the protests and questioning of Khamenei’s rule has severely challenged his legitimacy.
