Highlights
– UN passes Resolution 1874, granting states right to board North Korean ships
– Pyongyang restarts uranium enrichment program in response to resolution
– Another nuclear test likely in the near to medium-term
The United Nation’s (UN) Security Council voted Friday on tougher sanctions in response to North Korea’s May 25 nuclear test. The following day, Pyongyang announced that it intended to restart a uranium enrichment program and weaponize its plutonium.
With tensions in the region already heightened, we expect North Korea to attempt to conduct an additional nuclear weapon’s test in the near to medium-term. In response, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo will attempt to pressure China and Russia to do more to convince Pyongyang to soften its tone and return to the six-party talks.
Efforts at incentivizing North Korea to return to the bargaining table are the lowest they have been in years and we do not expect Pyongyang to moderate its defensive posture in the near-term, particularly as Kim Jong Il’s appears to have named his son as successor.
Resolution 1874
On Friday, June 12, 2009 the United Nation’s Security Council unanimously agreed to adopt Resolution 1874 in response to North Korea’s second nuclear weapon’s test. China and Russia at first appeared to be against some of the resolution’s language but eventually agreed to a negotiated compromise.
By unanimously adopting resolution 1874, the 15-member body condemned the 25 May nuclear test conducted in “violation and flagrant disregard” of relevant Council resolutions, particularly 1695 (2006) and 1718 (2006).
The most aggressive portion of the resolution authorizes member states to inspect, “in accordance with their national authorities and legislation, and consistent with international law,” North Korean cargo on land, sea, and air, and to destroy any goods suspected of being connected to the DPRK’s nuclear program.
While the authorization is fairly innocuous on its face, the resolution’s actual implementation could lead to catastrophic consequences. The likelihood that a North Korean vessel would ever willingly permit a foreign-flagged ship from inspecting its cargo is near nil. Moreover, pursuant to such an inspection, we believe there is a strong likelihood that North Korean ships would likely provoke an engagement near the country’s territorial waters.
In the near to medium-term, we do not foresee any foreign-flagged ships, particularly of the United States, South Korea or Japan, attempting to board North Korean vessels. In the coming weeks and months, we expect Washington to continue to attempt to persuade Beijing to convince Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table.
Outlook
On June 16, Japan banned all remaining trade with North Korea to punish the regime for its latest weapons’ tests, while President Obama met with South Korea’s President Lee Myung-bak to discuss Pyongyang’s latest acts of belligerence. Though Russia and China will drag their respective feet in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear weapon program, we believe it is in neither country’s interest to permit Pyongyang from continuing to play the part of the rogue belligerent in Northeast Asia.
Members of the now largely defunct six-party talks are in the difficult situation of having to choose between acquiescing to North Korean demands with a large aid package, versus continuing to stand strong and risk antagonizing Pyongyang into taking even more aggressive actions.
As it stands, we expect North Korea to attempt to conduct its third nuclear weapon’s test in the coming weeks or months. In the interim, we expect additional missile tests, both short and long-range, while Pyongyang attempts to detonate a bomb with a greater nuclear yield than its previous efforts.
