Highlights
– Police and military battle for control of political landscape
– Federal sweeps are a new tactic in Calderon’s military campaign
– More political arrests expected in the near-term
– Civil unrest expected to surround July election
On June 8, 2009 police officers blocking a main thoroughfare into San Nicolas and Escobedo drew guns on soldiers who arrived to clear the route. Federal forces arrested seven protesters, likely police, from a group of more than 100 staging the blockade in Monterrey against military probes of municipal officers. The confrontations represents the intensifying battle between federal forces and corrupt local and state governments within the country.
In addition to frequent arrests of police, President Calderon is increasingly sending sweeps to target elected officials in an effort to impact the political network of protection that covers so many criminal operatives in the country. We expect an increase in political arrests, notably in Michoacan and Monterrey leading up to the July 5, 2009 congressional elections. The arrests, however, will do little to immediately stunt drug smuggling operations throughout the country, but will leave cartels more susceptible to incrimination for the medium-term.
Federal Forces Increasing Sweeps Throughout Mexico
Federal forces are intensifying sweeps across the country in efforts round up law enforcement officers and politicians suspected of collaborating with organized crime groups. Since the week of June 1, 2009 the army arrested over 90 rogue officers, including 10 command-level officials. The following are just some of the more high-profile raids:
• Following the June 8 standoff, authorities in Nuevo Leon began confiscating rifles and cell phones from municipal police in Monterrey.
• On June 1, 2009 military troops temporarily took over one state police station and three municipal departments in northern Mexico, arresting a number of officers suspected of collusion with drug traffickers. Troops also staged coordinated takeovers at the Nuevo Leon and Monterrey police headquarters, and at the main police stations in the suburbs of Apodaca and San Nicolas de los Garza.
• On May 26, 2009 Mexican security forces swept into Michoacan and arrested a total of 27 mayors and other government officials, the largest operation to target politicians in Mexico. At least 10 mayors are being investigated for ties to organized crime syndicates in the state. The suspects were taken to Mexico City for questioning after being rounded up during the morning from their homes, offices and city halls. We note drug gangs control, to some degree, approximately 83 of the 113 municipalities in Michoacan.
This year, 285 soldiers and police officers have been arrested in Mexico for working with organized crime groups. President Calderon is evidently stepping up operations to target the large-scale networks of protection Mexican cartels have developed for decades.
As heavy military deployments resulted in a recent reduction in drug-related violence, Calderon likely intends the sweeps to collar softer elements of Mexico’s organized crime structure. Although we do not believe Calderon is targeting any particular political party, the efforts may also be aimed at stirring voter awareness on party-affiliated corruption. Thus far, officials from every camp have been involved in the arrests. However, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and they Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) sustained by far the most arrests. The election will determine all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats, six governorships, and hundreds of state and municipal offices.
Intimidation Efforts Escalate
Mexican cartels and other organized criminal units have long-enjoyed extensive blankets of political protection, largely solicited through purchase and intimidation. However, the recent federal crackdown of the political elite may result in the groups to up the ante in intimidation tactics.
• In May 2009 congressional candidate Gustavo Bucio Rodriguez was killed at a gasoline station. While many authorities attempted to convince political leaders he was the victim of common crime, later evidence supported cartel involvement.
• Also in May 2009, Nicolas Leon, the mayor of Lazaro Cardenas was tortured and shot to death. A message signed by La Familia accompanied his body warning sending a warning to Zetas supporters.
• In April 2009 retired Mexican army Colonel Arturo Navarro was shot and killed while driving in Piedras Negras. The incident occurred less than three weeks after he took over local police forces to purge alleged corruption.
Outlook
We expect sustained political arrests, notably in Michoacan and Monterrey leading up to July 5, 2009 congressional elections. Political turbulence will likely follow these efforts, especially from Mexico’s PRI, which suffered significant losses in recent arrests.
Public activists have already mobilized campaigns to debase the July vote, including a recent Internet-based movement called “ vote.” Continued civil unrest is expected in the near-term in light of the exposed corruption.
Political targeting will likely not have an immediate impact on the amount of drugs transited to the United States. However, continued attention to the sector may leave cartels more susceptible to incrimination in the medium to long-term.
