Highlights
– International naval forces in the Gulf of Aden successfully thwarting attacks
– Some pirates vow to renounce piracy and accept amnesty offer
– Somali pirates will continue to carryout attacks in near to medium-term, yet few will be successful
The international crackdown on piracy off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden has yielded close to 100 pirate arrests and has put many more on the defensive. United Nations (UN) Special Envoy to Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah told reporters on May 29, “The international maritime presence is increasingly successful.” Piracy incidents and attacks peaked earlier this year, when pirates carried out at least one attack per day. However, in recent weeks, the number of successful attacks dropped significantly, while the number of thwarted attacks and pirate arrests rose. Foreign navies have been deployed off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden since the beginning of the year to prevent acts of piracy, but have recently proven to be more successful in their efforts.
Moreover, the number of pirate attacks has lessened in the last few weeks compared with the first five months of 2009. Last month, approximately 200 Somali pirates renounced piracy in a meeting in northern Somalia, with pirate representative Abshir Abdullah urging other groups to free ships in return for amnesty. Although it is unclear at this time why some pirates have suddenly had a change of heart and others reduced their activity in recent weeks, we believe the increased presence and capabilities of international naval forces have greatly burdened and deterred pirate operations. However, we expect pirates to continue carrying out attacks in the near-term, though they will likely be limited and less successful than they have been in earlier months.
Attacks Slow as International Community Unites Against Piracy
According to a United States (US) State Department official, piracy in the Gulf of Aden has affected many industries worldwide, harming trade, slowing regional development and preventing humanitarian aid from reaching the poorest nations of east Africa. The international community’s unity in eradicating piracy in the region has greatly contributed to the piracy downturn, but we remain skeptical that many Somali pirates are ready or willing to surrender to a government amnesty deal.
On the other hand, the international community has increased its fervor and determination to combat pirates:
• Sending naval ships to prohibit pirate attacks,
• Assisting commercial ships to protect themselves against attacks,
• Adopting legal procedures to prosecute pirates,
• Helping the Somali government develop its own capacity to control its territory and bring security to its people, and
• Discouraging concessions to pirates.
Over 25 different naval forces are currently positioned off the Horn of Africa, waiting to counter-attack any threat to ships passing through the Gulf of Aden. Additionally, the Government of Kenya has agreed to try suspected pirates in their courts, which has already commenced with the help of the European Union – providing support and assistance to Kenya to help build additional capacity to prosecute pirates. As the international community strengthens its fight against piracy and improves the legal procedures to prosecute pirates, we expect the number of successful attacks to continue decreasing in the near to medium-term.
Attacks Continue, But Few Successful
In the most recent attack, occurring June 8, 2009, six pirate boats opened fire on a Libyan tanker in the Gulf of Aden, but were unable to overtake the Aisha, as the captain accelerated full speed until he entered into safe waters.
We expect such attacks will continue in the weeks and months to come, but will likely end less successfully for pirates. Though the first half of 2009 brought a robust wave of pirate attacks, we expect the second half of the year to be less dramatic. With additional naval forces in the region, pirates are forced to go further out to sea to carryout attacks. As a result, pirates are spending more booty to hijack ships and avoid arrests. Nonetheless, the pirates’ attempts to carryout attacks have increasingly been in vain. We anticipate pirates will face more obstacles and difficulties to conduct attacks, as international anti-piracy forces increase their operations in the near to medium-term.