Highlights
– Tight race for Iranian presidential election on June 12 mainly between current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and reformer Mir-Hossein Mousavi
– Ahmadinejad likely to win reelection as Ayatollahs continue to favor his leadership
– Ahmadinejad reelection will result in additional deterioration of relationship between the West and Iran
The Iranian presidential elections, set to take place on June 12, will determine whether Iran will open itself to the international community or remain a reclusive, pariah state in the eyes of the West. Despite a hemorrhaging economy and burdensome sanctions, Ahmadinejad still poised to win election as he retains the favor of the ruling elite.
Four candidates, including current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Moshen Rezai, will be on the ballot. The four were the only candidates allowed on the ballot out of the 475 candidates, including 42 women, who registered but were ruled ineligible by Iran’s Guardian Council.
Ahmadinejad, the current President, known for his bellicose stance towards the US and Israel and his nuclear ambitions, is facing an increasing challenge from his competitors and if he is defeated, it will be the first time a sitting president is ousted after a single four-year term. Regardless of the outcome, this race has stirred up Iranians more than any since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Iranians are expressing their excitement and dedication in a variety of rallies throughout the country, including rallies on June 8, which brought Tehran to a virtual standstill with Ahmadinejad and Mousavi supporters demonstrating in the streets.
Frontrunners
Even though his victory was celebrated in 2005, Ahmadinejad could face difficulties in his bid for reelection as views towards him are more nuanced, conflicted, and critical due to Iran’s struggling economy and his combative relationship with the West.
According to pre-election polls, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, prime minister during the Iran-Iraq war and a known reformer, is the strongest challenger to President Ahmadinejad. Much of the country’s youth, representing 60 percent of the Iranian population, strongly support Mousavi’s candidacy. Additionally, many have been marching through the streets of Tehran in support of his candidacy – demonstrations in support of Ahmadinejad have been notably smaller in size.
Mousavi’s biggest challenge will be ensuring a strong electoral turnout in order to capture the votes of those who have become disenfranchised with the electoral process. Some 50 percent of eligible voters, born after the 1979 Islamic revolution and are generally against the hardliners, do not vote.
Moshen Rezai, another conservative candidate, also poses a threat to Ahmadinejad’s bid for reelection as he offers a clear protest vote for those voters who believe Ahmadinejad has not made a concerted effort to correct Iran’s slumping economy. Reformers, including Mousavi’s camp, are hoping Rezai can split the conservative vote and leave Ahmadinejad vulnerable. In addition to facing a struggling economy, next week’s vote could be determined by violence should history be any indicator.
Violence Ahead of Elections
In 2005, incumbent President Mohammed Khatami was defeated following a series of violent incidents in both Tehran and along the Iran-Iraq border. Similarly, the past few weeks in Iran have been marred by a resurgence in violence, shattering Iran’s relative calm.
• June 5: Ahmadinejad and Mousavi supporters clash in Tehran
• June 1: Five people were killed in an arson attack on an Iranian bank in Zahedan
• May 29: Gunmen attacked one of Ahmadinejad’s campaign offices in Zahedan, wounding two campaign workers and a child
• May 28: A bombing at a mosque in Zahedan resulted in the death of 30 people – Jundallah claimed responsibility for the attack
It is likely recent violence will affect public perceptions of Ahmadinejad and his ability to govern and provide security for the Iranian population. If this occurs, there is a high likelihood that the violence, especially if it continues this week, will affect the outcome of the elections as it did in 2005.
Ahmadinejad Likely to Win Reelection
If the largest gatherings in Iran in more than a decade are any indication, Ahmadinejad will have a hard time winning the June 12 elections. The struggling economy and poor relations with the West, among other domestic issues, has incited a strong opposition movement.
We believe the Iranian elections will not be decided on June 12, but rather in a runoff between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi on June 19 – if no single candidate emerges with 50 percent plus one vote in the first round, runoffs are required. In previous elections, runoffs have resulted in the incumbent’s defeat, perhaps an indication that Ahmadinejad will be defeated. All of this, however, depends on voter turnout on June 12 and 19 – a higher turnout should allow Mousavi to fare better than Ahmadinejad in the polls.
To the Ayatollahs, Ahmadinejad is the lesser of two evils and easier to control. As the Ayatollah’s determine nearly all of Iranian polices, despite his appeal and popularity, it is unlikely Mousavi will be able to defeat Ahmadinejad in a runoff election.
