Highlights
– Haqqani network most influential terror group in southeastern Afghanistan
– Organization favors large-scale, suicide operations
– Network one of the most dangerous and capable organizations operating in Afghanistan, rivaling the Taliban
The Haqqani network is an independent insurgent group operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan that is closely aligned with the Taliban. The group’s leader, Jalaluddin Haqqani, rose to prominence during the 1980’s Soviet-Afghan war and has maintained his status as a prominent insurgent commander who holds considerable sway over several of the eastern provinces in Afghanistan.
While Jalaluddin remains an influential character in the Haqqani network, it is Jalaluddin’s son, Sirajuddin, who has taken over day-to-day command of the terrorist organization. Sirajuddin has proven more dynamic than his father and expanded the network greatly since it became an independent organization in 2007. The younger Haqqani has had a particular impact in the southeastern provinces of Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Logar, and Ghazni, going so far as to establishing parallel governments in some provinces.
We expect the Haqqani network to continue to grow under Sirajuddin’s adroit leadership. More than any other Afghan insurgent group, the Haqqani network is better connected to Pakistani intelligence and Arab jihadist groups, allowing it to maintain its capabilities amid a NATO-United States (US) crackdown. We judge the likelihood of the Haqqani network conducting large-scale, well coordinated, suicide attacks as high in the near to medium-term. As Sirajuddin’s power and influence over the organization continues to grow, we expect the group’s reach and attacks to grow with it.
Sirajuddin’s Reach
The Haqqani network frequently uses well-coordinated and sophisticated suicide attacks in Afghanistan. Whereas Afghan Taliban suicide attacks tend to rely on locals, the Haqqani network is more likely to use foreigners. The organization’s sophistication and ability to conduct well-coordinated attacks is largely due to its connections inside Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, an allegation denied by Pakistan.
Paktia province is where the Haqqani network’s influence is strongest, but most of the attacks are planned in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), specifically North Waziristan. Further, the group has been able to orchestrate attacks and wield influence outside of Afghanistan’s southeastern provinces, including Kabul.
Bigger is Better
The Haqqani network was responsible for the assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai in April 2008 during a military parade in Kabul, nearly succeeding. While the President escaped, three individuals died and the attack showcased the Haqqani network’s wide reach and ability to conduct operations targeting high-security events.
On May 12, 2009 militants belonging to the network showcased their ability to conduct a well-coordinated, sophisticated attack. Dozens of fighters simultaneously stormed government buildings in the city of Khost. The attack featured multiple suicide bombers and has been considered one of the most brazen attacks since fighting broke out in the country. In addition to the May 12th attack, the organization was responsible for a high-profile assault on a luxury hotel in Kabul in January 2008 and blamed for the July 2008 massive car bomb attack of the Indian embassy in Kabul that killed 41 people.
Each attack has been attributed to Sirajuddin, who appears to favor large-scale operations on high-profile targets. The attacks in Kabul are evidence of the Haqqani networks extensive reach and connections throughout Afghanistan. However, the group’s influence will remain strongest in Paktia and other southeastern provinces. The group will continue to conduct brazen attacks, involving assaults and suicide operations targeting Embassies, government buildings, and security infrastructure. Kabul will remain a primary target for Sirajuddin, who is all too eager to showcase the influence of the Haqqani network.
Peace Possible, Not Probable
Following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Jalaluddin Haqqani was on the fence whether to join the new Afghan government or fight against it. There is much dispute behind what prompted Jalaluddin to fight against Afghan and NATO forces, and there is little doubt the Haqqani network has emerged as a major obstacle in achieving stability in Afghanistan.
Preliminary talks between the Afghan government and various insurgent groups, including the Haqqani network, have been taking place for months. Top leaders of the network have reportedly been contacted and remain open to hearing the government’s proposals. However, given the Haqqani network’s opposition to US tactics and presence, we believe there is a low probability the group will engage in serious peace talks with the Afghan government in the near to medium-term. Jalaluddin, Sirajuddin, and other network leaders are unlikely to accept any government posts or peace proposals without a firm commitment for the US to withdraw troops – an event we deem unlikely in the near to medium-term.
Outlook
The Afghan government’s continued effort to reach out to the Haqqani network is unlikely to achieve its desired results in the near-term. The Haqqani organization is operating from a position of strength and unlikely to cede power or influence given the proposals put forth thus far.
It is our assessment that the organization, especially under Sirajuddin, remains committed in the near to medium-term to combating Afghan and NATO forces throughout Afghanistan. The network’s influence will remain strongest in Paktia and the southeastern provinces, but will prove its national reach by conducting large-scale attacks in Kabul and other cities in the coming months.
The network will remain independent, but allied with the Taliban for the near to medium-term. It will remain closely connected and linked to the Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, Arab jihadist groups, and ISI as each group provides varying degrees of support to the organization. This complex dynamic will ensure the Haqqani network remains one of the most dangerous and capable insurgent groups operating in Afghanistan.
