Highlights
– Cuba willing to reengage mitigation talks with the United States
– OAS to meet in Honduras to assess readmission for Cuba
– US unlikely to allow Cuba access due to recently improved relations; discussions to proceed slowly in the near-term with mounted opposition
On May 31, 2009 the head of the Cuban Interests Section in Washington, DC, Jorge Bolaños, formally accepted a United States (US) offer to reengage diplomatic talks on legal immigration, which previously ended in 2003 under the Bush administration. Cuba also signaled a willingness to cooperate on issues including terrorism, drug trafficking and mail service.
Narrow Dialogue An Attempt To Build Confidence
As this will be the highest level of contact between the two governments since mitigation talks ended under the Bush Administration, dialogue will remain focused on narrow predetermined topics. Both administrations hope to avoid high public expectations and contentious topics during the discussions.
The Obama administration is primarily interested in discussing immigration due to growing numbers of Cubans attempting to enter the US illegally and human smuggling into the Caribbean region. The US likely hopes talks will lead to discussions on other bilateral issues to segue into a broader agenda through gained trust. While Cuban officials are principally interested in US proposals to resume direct mail services, as mail is curretly routed through third-party countries like Mexico.
Cuba also suggested additional topics, including fighting drug trafficking, terrorism, and formulating interdiction cooperation on disaster preparation. Although both governments currently cooperate informally in drug smuggling cases, the suggestion may be a pointed attempt to garner favor before the upcoming Organization of American States (OAS) meeting in Honduras on June 3, 2009 to readmit Cuba to the regional body. However, Cuba has displayed no direct desire to join the organization traditionally deemed as a US-tool of influence.
Opposition Responds
Former President Fidel Castro reacted to the agreed discourse in a blog post. Castro addressed US officials writing that Havana was the victim of a 50-year economic “blockade.” He went on to say, “one does not ask the victim to make concessions to its victimizer,” referring to concessions on human rights, political prisoners and democracy the US demands are required by the Inter-American Democratic Charter to gain readmission to OAS.
Three former Bush administration officials, Ambassadors Lino Gutierrez, Roger Noriega and Otto Reich have already appealed to Clinton not to “give in.” We expect talks to proceed slowly with strong opposition continuing from a number of anti-Castro groups.
Outlook
The US likely is not willing to invite Cuba to rejoin the OAS, regardless of recently improved relations, without changes to its policies, including releasing political prisoners.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s third trip to Latin America in four months indicates a reengagement in the region, where US influence significantly waned since the prior administrations focused on conflicts with Iraq and Afghanistan.
We believe a large portion of the Cuban population is in favor of a shift in US intentions. Pressures on the Cuban government to address a stagnating economy, rising prices on food imports, and lagging tourism, in addition to damaging effect the global economic crisis is having on the country, will likely opening Cuba up to greater dialogue in the near to medium-term.
