Highlights
– Basque militants highlight British and French tourists as threats
– French and Spanish coordination crackdown on ETA’s safe haven
– Small to medium-scale bombings are likely in the medium term, with government, tourism and infrastructure as probable targets
Summer homes and infrastructure projects in Spain and France’s Basque regions could replace government institutions as priority targets for militants of the separatist group Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA). In a recent interview with Gara, a pro-independence Basque newspaper in Spain, two masked ETA militants claimed British tourists visiting the region threatened to eradicate traditional Basque culture including the ancient Basque language of Euskara and Basque farming heritage. The militants claimed, “these oppressed territories will become leisure areas for the English, for Parisians and people from Bordeaux.” (Source)
Focusing on tourists and the alleged “colonization” of the Basque region reflects ETA’s ongoing efforts to divert attention from the group’s weakening political influence. In May 2009, the first non-nationalist leader of the Basque government was sworn into power, a political blow for ETA as Socialist Party leader Patxi Lopez rejects any future negotiations with ETA.
On an operational level, enhanced counterterrorism cooperation between Paris and Madrid improved drastically in recent months. Consequently, this coordination infiltrated the group’s once perceived safe haven in France, resulting in an unprecedented series of arrests and setbacks.
Despite all of the recent obstacles, ETA claimed it would soon move past a period of “reflection and assembly” in order to “establish an effective political-armed strategy.” (Source) Without an affiliated nationalist political voice in the Basque political process, violence remains the group’s ultimate means of communication. We expect hard-line ETA militants to continue targeting various government institutions in the near-term. Villas, cottages and restaurants frequented by tourists in the region may also be targeted by small-scale, discriminate bombings in the medium-term.
A Safe Haven No More
French and Spanish police cooperation led to the arrests of a number of prominent ETA figures in France over the past year.
– May 26, 2009 – French police arrest ETA member Iker Esparza, who was traveling in a stolen vehicle, carrying false license plates, a gun and fake identification. (Source)
– April 19, 2009 – A French-Spanish operation near Perpignan in southeast France resulted in the arrest of ETA “No. 1” Jurdan Martitegui Lizaso. (Source)
– April 10, 2009 – French police arrest a top ETA leader, Ekaitz Sirvent Auzmendi, at Montparnasse station in Paris after getting off a high-speed train from Bordeaux. (Source)
– November 17, 2008 – Police arrest ETA’s suspected military chief, Garikoitz Aspiazu Rubina, alias Txeroki, in southern France’s mountainous Pyrenean region. (Source)
– May 21, 2008 – French police arrest Francisco Javier Lopez Pena, also known as Thierry, and three other ETA leaders in a raid in Bordeaux. (Source)
Tourism and Business Expansion Perceived as Threats
ETA militants previously committed isolated bomb attacks on summer homes and businesses owned by non-Basques, including attacks on a prominent French chef’s restaurant near Biarritz, France. We remain concerned that along with tourist locations on the fringe of the Basque region, ETA militants will be inclined to strike business projects and infrastructure expansion that continue to threaten their perceived cultural heritage.
The ETA slaying of a businessman in December 2008 underscores the threat to outside businesses operating in the Basque region. ETA hit men shot and killed the owner of a construction firm working on building Spain’s high-speed AVE train connecting Madrid and France. ETA militants have previously condemned the high-speed train as a project that was “anti-social, anti-ecological, wasteful of resources and inappropriate for the Basque region.”
Construction firms subsequently hired armed guards for an additional layer of security against future ETA threats. Later on February 9, 2009 ETA set its sights closer to the Spanish government by perpetrating a car bomb attack on a construction firm on the outskirts of Madrid.
ETA’s weaknesses are evident following the latest leadership arrests, outlawing of affiliated political groups by Spanish courts, and weapons seizures in police raids. Although a violent campaign may alienate more of its former supporters, bombings may be the group’s last means of political communication as it fights desperately to regain levels of support for its separatist campaign.
