Highlights
– South Waziristan operation likely in July or August
– Timing of operation largely depends on stabilization of Swat Valley
– Military campaign in South Waziristan likely to result in major escalation of terrorist attacks throughout Pakistan
Following Pakistan’s military victory in Swat Valley, top Western and Pakistani officials are speculating over what territory will be the next battleground in the country’s war against Islamic militants. All indications have pointed toward South Waziristan, the main base of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud.
The region is a remote area located in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and considered the epicenter of Taliban and al Qaeda militants in Pakistan. International terrorist plots continue to be planned and organized from Waziristan, as the region provides a sanctuary for top al Qaeda, Afghan, and Pakistani Taliban leaders.
The clashes between the Pakistani military and militants in South Waziristan on May 29, 2009 appear to be a prelude to a pending invasion. A full-scale military incursion into the area will likely take place this summer, the success of which will largely depend on the outcome of the military’s most recent operation in Swat Valley (Previous Report).
Despite the ongoing refugee crisis, we expect the situation will improve in the coming months in Swat Valley, allowing the Pakistani military to launch an operation in FATA. We expect fighting in the area to be some of the most intense to date, resulting in significant casualties for both sides. Such an invasion is likely to be met with revenge attacks launched by Mehsud’s TTP organization targeting major urban areas throughout the country.
Invading South Waziristan
Speculation of a Pakistani military invasion of South Waziristan arose last month when President Asif Ali Zardari discussed the possibility of such an operation with a British-based newspaper. Following the interview, strong debate emerged over the feasibility and likelihood of a full-scale invasion of the region.
Previous operations in South Waziristan tended to be half-hearted attempts and often concluded with a peace agreement or ceasefire that seemed to favor militants in the area. Should the Pakistani government authorize an invasion, half measures would likely be met with strong reprisal attacks that would embolden Mehsud’s organization to extend its reach beyond its current stronghold.
A major operation would require the full participation of the Pakistani military, as the large number of militants within the region and its rough terrain will pose major obstacles for a successful invasion. The harsh mountainous terrain is ideally suited for guerrilla warfare, and Pakistani Taliban militants have been concentrated in the area for years constructing underground tunnels and fortifications. The tribal people of Waziristan are deeply hostile toward the Pakistani Army, preventing cooperation on a local level further complicating attempts to win hearts and minds.
Skirmishes Already Underway
Fighting between the Pakistani military and TTP militants in South Waziristan has already begun. On May 30, 2009 TTP militants attacked a paramilitary camp near the border with Afghanistan, killing nearly 50 militants and government forces combined. Militants also ambushed several Pakistani military convoys in the region, in retaliation for previous operations against the TTP in Buner, Dir, and Swat Valley.
Sensing the coming military offensive in South Waziristan, Mehsud has ordered his forces to escalate attacks against army bases and checkpoints in the area. Mehsud is attempting to weaken the military’s presence in South Waziristan and achieve an early tactical advantage by launching guerrilla-style operations against the Frontier Corps (FC) and Army soldiers.
Future Outcome
There exists some evidence to suggest the South Waziristan offensive may come as early as June 2009. However, due to the continued operation in Swat Valley and large number of civilians who remain displaced, a major military offensive in South Waziristan is unlikely to occur until July or August. Swat Valley needs to be stabilized before the Pakistani Army embarks on another military campaign in FATA.
The authorization of an offensive in Waziristan would likely have major repercussions for Pakistan. There is a high likelihood that an offensive in Waziristan will be accompanied by several large-scale terrorist attacks throughout Pakistan’s major urban centers. Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, and Rawalpindi are the cities most likely to be targeted by Mehsud’s forces. While Mehsud is likely to prefer targeting military and security infrastructure, the TTP has proven the willingness and capability to target civilian targets.
Waziristan is at the heart of Western counter-terrorism interests in the region, providing safe haven to Afghan insurgents and Pakistani militants heading into Afghanistan. Western officials are likely to welcome a campaign in Waziristan to weaken Mehsud and the large number of insurgents residing in the region. An invasion of South Waziristan will not be an easy operation for the Pakistani military and likely be a triggering event for a major escalation of bombings and violence in all corners of the country.
