Highlights
– Suu Kyi trial verdict overshadows country’s ethnic strife
– Conflict in north threatens to plunge country into civil war
– Democracy unlikely to return to country in next year’s elections
A verdict is expected shortly following the conclusion of the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate and imprisoned head of Burma’s opposition, the National League of Democracy (NLD). Having spent thirteen of the last nineteen years in prison, Suu Kyi was put on trial recently for allegedly violating the terms of her house arrest mandated by the ruling military junta.
After a sweeping victory in the country’s first democratically administered election in 1990, Burma’s military junta, led by General Than Shwe, discarded nationwide election results and upheld Suu Kyi’s imprisonment which began the year before.
Since that time, the military junta has ignored international criticism and condemnation and refused to hold free and fair elections. Mass protests have been put down violently, opposition candidates have been repeatedly harassed, and minority ethnic groups have been repressed. Economically stagnant – the country remains a bureaucratic nightmare – but quietly supported by China and because of its rich natural resources.
As troubling as the human rights situation in Burma remains, little attention has been paid to ongoing strife between the junta and ethnic insurgents in the country’s north. The conflict, though garnering little media attention, could force Burma into a major civil war in the near to medium-term.
Minority Groups Wary of Junta Proposals
In late April, meetings were held between Myanmar military commanders and representatives of every major ethnic group in the north that took part in mid-90s ceasefire agreements with the ruling junta.
Representatives from the Kachin Independence Organization Army (KIO/A), the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the National Democratic Alliance Army of the Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) all met with high-ranking Myanmar military commanders. During the meetings, all representatives were given the same three options: surrender, join the Myanmar army as border guards, or retire and establish a political party.
As it stands, most of the groups appear unwilling to accept the terms being offered by the junta. Further, as many appear to be receiving financial and arms support from China, most are well equipped to sustain a long-term confrontation with Myanmar’s military.
As of May 20, the UWSA rejected the military’s proposals, insisting that it would prefer to maintain its current ceasefire status. Reports from Kachin State and Shan State both suggest that neither group is willing to accept the junta’s proposal either. While most groups appear reluctant to come to terms with Myanmar’s military leadership, all out war is not inevitable. As it stands, it appears unlikely that the country’s leadership would be willing to wage war against Myanmar’s various, well-armed ethnic groups.
Groups Armed and Ready
Most troubling is the large number of soldiers each group allegedly has in its standing armies. KIO/A claims to have some 20,000 men, while NDAA, MNDAA and SSA-N each allegedly have several thousand men under arms.
Further threatening the ruling junta is the size and scope of UWSA’s army. The largest ethnic minority in Myanmar, the group boasts some 25,000 men, including anti-aircraft artillery and surface-to-air missiles. Most of the heavy firepower was allegedly acquired from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
In addition to the already sizable number of well-armed soldiers, an additional cause for concern is the fact that Wa forces have allegedly developed their own weapons manufacturing facility in their territory. The creation has been so successful that the group has been selling arms to other groups in Myanmar and even groups operating in northeastern India.
Outlook
As it stands, the disparate minority groups remain powerful enough to check Myanmar’s military but not powerful enough to demand their own autonomous states. Dialogue will likely remain open between the various groups and the governing elite, but we expect little progress in the near to medium-term.
China will remain a major influence in Myanmar’s affairs for the foreseeable future as it maintains close relations with the government and with the country’s various ethnic groups living near the border. In truth, most groups enduring existence likely depends on continued Chinese support, a matter we expect to remain unchanged in the near-term.
Hoping to avoid major instability near its border with Myanmar, Beijing will continue to provide just enough support to keep the ruling junta in check while also keeping it willing to act as a transport for oil and natural gas.
