Highlights
– Pyongyang detonates second nuclear device, follows with short-range missile test
– United Nations holds emergency meeting to address the development
– Only recourse appears to be additional sanctions, will have limited effect on regime’s ability to operate
North Korea , in yet another attempt to draw attention to its atomic prowess, has again conducted a subterranean nuclear explosion. Several weeks after the country attempted to put a satellite into space, the recalcitrant communist regime has detonated what current estimates suggest was approaching a 20 kiloton nuclear explosion, roughly the size and strength of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1944.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, the world’s independent body for monitoring possible breaches of the test ban, has collected data from 39 seismic stations around the world and is awaiting additional details prior to making a formal assessment of the devices strength. Following the test, North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles further aggravating its neighbors and drawing additional ire from the international community.
The second nuclear test, coming on the heels of the country’s long-range missile test, was likely conducted for two reasons. The first was likely to bolster Kim Jong Il’s power amongst military hardliners, and by default strengthen the future status of his chosen heir. The second reason was based, in part, on Pyongyang’s understanding that the international community is unlikely to do more than issue a condemnation of the test while threatening increased sanctions.
United Nations Holds Emergency Meeting
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to consider the options after Pyongyang’s test of a nuclear device on Monday. The Council called the test a “clear violation” of international law and immediately began working on a resolution that could impose new sanctions on the country.
While the international community continues to debate how to handle North Korea’s latest temper tantrum, Kim Jong Il will continue to exploit the fractures that exist between the major players of the six-party talks, namely the United States (US) and China.
Pyongyang likely realizes that the US has few cards left in its hand to play against the regime. Further, Kim Jong Il recognizes that China will likely object to any attempt to impose meaningful sanctions if they appear too harsh on the country’s military elite.
The result will likely be continued condemnation coming from the US, Japan, South Korea, Russia and China. However, beyond vociferous condemnation, we do not expect the international community to take any major steps to interrupt the regime’s ability to operate in the long-term.
What Can Yet Be Done?
Following the UN condemnation, the North launched one ground-to-air missile and one ground-to-ship missile into the sea Tuesday off its eastern coast near the city of Hamhung. The move, which came just hours after the nuclear test conducted in Kilju, illustrates Pyongyang’s willingness to test the lengths the US and the international community will go to stifle the country’s nuclear development.
There is little more Washington can do to deter North Korea, punished for years by international sanctions and so poor it relies on aid to feed its 23 million people. Though the US will continue to make ominous threats against the regime, Washington is neither willing nor positioned to engage the country in the only way it would listen, militarily.
Pundits will continue to debate the mechanisms available to address North Korea’s growing arrogance in terms of nuclear development, but we do not expect the UN or the US to be able to alter the regime’s behavior until Beijing is willing to stop treating Pyongyang with kid’s gloves.
