Highlights
– Correa celebrates re-election with Chavez and Morales
– Investments and relations within the region to be strengthened, while a broader international mission proves evident
– Trinity to attempt to strengthen regional support for socialist movement in near-term, while long-term agenda will include influence among anti-US world powers
On May 23, 2009 Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and Bolivian President Evo Morales met together in Quito, to commemorate the 187th anniversary of the Battle Pichincha, an event that secured Ecuador’s independence. Correa highlighted at public ceremonies he would assume an even more radical approach to implement his “citizen’s revolution” in conjunction with his Bolivarian counterparts.
Correa’s Re-Election Stepping Grounds For Revolution
At the rally Correa celebrated his re-election as a “second birth” for Ecuador. Correa promised to fund projects already in place in Venezuela and Bolivia.
Correa also highlighted Ecuador, Venezuela, and Bolivia, referred to as the “socialist trinity,” would together initiate “profound, rapid and peaceful revolution” to “radicalize and deepen” immediate change. Correa noted Ecuador would pursue continuing openness to all countries, within a framework of mutual respect, and seek Latin American integration.
Venezuelan and Ecuadorian leaders met prior to the celebration to discuss multiple agreements, including exchange of Ecuadorian crude oil by-products, gas exploration and construction of a mega-refinery, indicating solidifying bilateral relations for continued trade and agendas.
• Correa recognized energy exchanges with Venezuela saved Quito US$252 million over two years.
A Broader Diplomatic Agenda
The three countries are promoting a “21st Century Socialism,” much of which centers on mutual misgivings of the United States (US) and neoliberalism, as well as interests in aligning relations with powers such as Iran and Russia.
On May 25, 2009 Chavez had a phone conversation with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to brief the executive on the visit to Quito and an upcoming meeting in Brazil. Russian authorities claimed the leaders discussed Russian-Venezuelan trade-economic cooperation, particularly concerning energy dialogue and financial and military-technical cooperation. Chavez likely intends to secure Ecuador in energy deals with Russia in order to strengthen his political influence in trade negotiations in the near to medium-term. He will attempt to accelerate this theme in upcoming visits to Brazil, a growing competitor for oil sales to the US.
Mainstream media sources also released a secret Israeli government report on May 25, 2009 speculating Venezuela and Bolivia are uranium suppliers to Iran for its nuclear program. Although both countries are known Iranian allies, this is the first time such allegations have been made against the two countries. The report also argued Venezuela and Bolivia are violating the UN Security Council’s economic sanctions by aiding Iran and are facilitating threats to the state of Israel through the following agenda:
• Iran-backed Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon easily set up cells in Latin America.
• Venezuela issued permits allowing Iranian residents to travel freely in South America.
• Ahmadinejad and Chavez established a US$200 billion fund to amass support from more South American countries under the theme “liberation from the American imperialism.”
Venezuela and Bolivia have broadened diplomatic ties with Iran under Ahmadinejad. The growing alliance is largely focused on shared antagonism to the US, as well as acting as an outlet to lessen Iran’s international isolation. Chavez will pursue opportunities to accumulate support for Iran in Latin America in order to utilize influence as political and economic bartering chips to support his socialist regime in the medium-term.
Outlook
Venezuela will primarily focus on accelerating support for the socialist movement within South America, attempting to align left-leaning nations through promises of improved energy and trade agreements in the near-term. Chavez will struggle to support this campaign, as the effects of the economic crisis have already forced a large-scale federal budget cut on foreign aid. For the near-term, Chavez will intensify nationalization efforts to bolster federal resources and will encourage close allies Correa and Morales to make dramatic efforts to do the same.
For the medium-term, the leftist nations will focus on developments of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), an alternative alliance to the Organization of American States (OAS) initiated by Chavez. In support of the institution, Chavez may withdraw from OAS to illicit strong support from Cuba in the near-term. Correa remains an observer at ALBA meetings.
We believe the global economic crisis and unstable energy prices catalyzed momentum in Latin America’s socialist movement. Leftist leaders, fearing lost financial resources and power, will continue campaigns criticizing capitalism, increasing state seizures of national resources and banking institutions, as well as forging alliances to undermine the interests of the United States.