Highlights
-War’s end ushers in a series of new challenges for Rajapaksa
-Humanitarian situation likely to worsen over the coming months
-International condemnation will dissipate as Colombo focuses on economy
Following a statement released by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) indicating an intent to lay down arms after over twenty-five years of fighting, Sri Lankan television released footage of what it claims was the body of the group’s founder and leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. The purpose of the images was to dispel claims by the rebel group that Prabhakaran had managed to escape the war zone and continues to lead the beleaguered group.
Prabhakaran’s death ends the resistance movement that the LTTE had managed for over a quarter century, but precedes a series of far more complex and potentially destabilizing issues facing Sri Lanka as the government begins to focus on the post-war period.
On top of addressing the immense humanitarian crisis in the country’s north, President Rajapaksa’s Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) will have to accomplish the following: develop a political settlement which addresses Tamil grievances and brings the minority into the government; continue with ongoing counter-insurgency operations against an expected guerilla movement; and overcome a troubling economic situation as well as the condemnation touted throughout the international community.
Humanitarian Challenges
Over 250,000 displaced Tamils have arrived at humanitarian enclaves since fighting officially ended in the country’s volatile northeast, with more expected to arrive by the day. The immediate challenge for the government is to resettle the displaced back into their homes in the north. At the moment, these people are housed in 42 state-run ‘welfare’ camps with the help of aid agencies.
Despite the government’s declaration of victory, the United Nations refugee agency said that its access to facilities for refugees has been greatly curtailed, affecting its ability to monitor and distribute aid.
These so called welfare camps are surrounded by razor wire, ensuring that rebels who may have disguised themselves as regular citizens cannot return to fighting without first being vetted by the Sri Lankan Army (SLA). We expect the SLA to justify a prolonged interment based on the need to conduct a sweep for mines that were laid throughout the war zone. Estimates are that most refugees will remain interned in the camps for at least one year.
Should Colombo fail to quickly and effectively address the growing humanitarian catastrophe in the north, Tamil animosity towards the process of reintegration into Sri Lankan society will grow, making efforts at reconciliation more difficult.
Guerilla Movement
Another issue that we expect to plague Sri Lankan society is identifying and capturing remaining Tiger fighters. Given the manner by which the SLA managed to drive and later encircle rebel fighters into a corner of the group’s vast territory, we do not expect many fighters managed to escape from the war zone. However, some fighters may have gone underground while the LTTE still maintained large swaths of territory in the country’s north, evading recent military advances.
Additionally, bombings that have taken place near Colombo and in the country’s far south suggest rebel fighters and sympathetic Tamil communities operating in the area may continue to stage bombings and suicide attacks in the future. Tiger forces are rumored to have been ordered, in case of conventional defeat, to target Sri Lanka’s economically valuable assets, suggesting that infrastructure and tourist hotspots may be targets of future attacks.
International Condemnation
In recent months, the government deflected calls by Western governments and international aid agencies for a cease-fire and greater access to battle zones. While the Tamil Tigers were said to have used human shields as they retreated to a tiny redoubt in the northeast, the government angrily denied evidence that it had been shelling areas where tens of thousands of civilians were trapped.
Now that fighting has ended, the United Nations alongside aid and humanitarian organizations, will direct their condemnation at Colombo’s handling of the refugee problem. The United Nations believes that nearly 7,000 civilians may have been killed and another 13,000 injured in the war since January. Colombo disputes these figures.
Even the European Union says it is appalled by the high number of civilian casualties, which include children. EU foreign ministers have called for an independent inquiry into alleged war crimes and human rights violations during the weeks of intense fighting between the army and the rebels. We do not foresee such inquiries gaining much traction in the coming months.
Colombo had been reluctant to pay much mind to international calls for a ceasefire during the war. We believe that reluctance will continue as calls for greater efforts to address Tamil suffering arise. President Rajapaksa demonstrated a cold efficiency in dealing with the LTTE during the war. We expect that same cold efficiency will dictate how he handles displaced Tamils in the coming months.
