Highlights
-Netanyahu visits Egypt and Jordan and United States to discuss Iranian threat
-Fears of Israeli action against Iran remains a top concern for US officials
-Talks could lead to cooperation against Iran and/or a comprehensive peace plan
On May 11, 2009, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his first trip abroad since his election, visiting President Mubarak of Egypt, followed by Jordan’s King Abdullah and then traveling to the United States (US) to meet with President Obama a week later. On the surface, Netanyahu’s travels abroad were meant to dispel concerns that the newly elected rightist government is not open to dialogue. At a deeper level, however, Netanyahu’s tour appears to have been a veiled attempt at shoring up support for a potential preemptive attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Fears of a Resurgent Iran
Netanyahu has focused on the Iranian nuclear threat since his election, and it is likely this was a main topic of conversation on these visits, as both Egypt and Jordan share Israel’s fear of a resurgent Iran. Most of the Arab world, including Jordan and Egypt, fear a nuclear Shiite Iran because they believe it poses a direct challenge to their Sunni regimes and is an Iranian attempt to determine policy in the region.
Mubarak, in particular, fears that the Iranian backed Hezbollah is a direct threat to Egypt. In mid-April, Egyptian security forces arrested 25 alleged members of Hezbollah who were accused of plotting attacks against Egypt. Netanyahu demonstrated his awareness of the threat of Iran to Arab regimes at an American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference last summer by saying that, “[f]or the first time in my lifetime…Arabs and Jews see a common danger.”
Differing Opinions
President Obama and Netanyahu have differing opinions on how to deal with Iran. While Netanyahu generally takes a more hawkish stance, the US has urged Israel not to attack Iran and is attempting to deal with Iran through diplomatic channels. It was recently revealed that Leon Panetta, CIA Director, secretly traveled to Israel in mid-May to get assurances that Netanyahu would not attack Iran without first alerting the US. It is clear that the Obama administration fears that the Israelis might replicate the 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor and realizes that such a ssault would have severe repercussions for the US.
A Comprehensive Peace Plan?
We believe that Netanyahu made these trips in an effort to rally support for a potential Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear sites. It is unlikely that Israel will attack Iran, but in order to deter Iranian aggression, Israel will need to present a united front that should include the Arab states that recognize Israel.
We do not believe that Netanyahu will gain Arab support for an attack on Iran due to a variety of reasons, including the Palestinian issue, which has been cited as a hindrance for Arab-Israeli cooperation in general. There is a tremendous amount of public pressure on Mubarak and Abdullah to resolve the Palestinian conflict prior to working with Israel on any other issue. As a result, in both meetings, the Arab leaders essentially demanded that Netanyahu accept the two-state solution. King Abdullah went so far as to say that a resolution to the Palestinian conflict would result in a “57 state solution” and a failure to resolve the situation would result in another Middle East war in the next 14 months.
