Highlights
– Pakistani leadership claims commitment to military offensive in Swat Valley
– Fighting between army and militants expected to intensify in the near-term
– The establishment of a long-term peace deal unlikely
The Pakistani Army began an offensive in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on April 26, 2009 in the districts of Buner, Dir, and Swat Valley. The military offensive follows the collapse of a February 2009 deal signed between Pakistani Taliban militants and the central government. The deal was short-lived, as both sides have since accused the other of violating the agreement.
The military offensive in Swat Valley is evidence that Pakistani Taliban militants may have underestimated the government’s resolve and overstepped their boundaries by invading neighboring districts. The Army appears to be taking the Taliban threat seriously by deploying elite commandos and regular Army soldiers to the threatened districts. In previous operations, the government relied primarily on the local and ill-equipped Pashtun Frontier Corps (FC).
We do not expect fighting in the region to ease in the coming weeks. An effective and long-term peace deal between the government and militants is all but out of the question. The military offensive increases the likelihood that Pakistani Taliban militants will initiate retaliatory attacks on the country’s civilian and security infrastructure in the coming weeks.
Pakistani Resolve
The Army’s offensive into Swat Valley currently has the support of the general public, a rare occurrence when the government embarks on military offensives in the NWFP. With public support, civilian government officials appear determined to continue the military offensive in the near-term in attempt to deal a major blow to Pakistani Taliban militants operating in the region.
President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik have all been outspoken supporters of the offensive. Zardari claimed Pakistan was in a war of existence and Malik stated the operation would continue until the military asserts control over the entire 400-square mile area of Swat Valley.
Questions still remain over support of a long-term military offensive and rebuilding operation amongst Pakistan’s top civilian and military leadership. There is little doubt that Pakistan’s leadership views India as its primary threat, decreasing the likelihood of Pakistan remaining committed to eradicating the Taliban presence in Swat Valley for the long-term.
Statements by Zardari, Gilani, and Malik prompted top Pakistani Taliban militants to threaten attacks against the civilian leadership, their families, and hometowns. While the threats are unlikely to deter the country’s top leadership, defeating the militants and rebuilding Swat Valley will prove to be a long and difficult process. Public and political support will likely only remain high for a limited time, especially as civilian casualties rise and the refugee crisis worsens.
Humanitarian Crisis
Over 500,000 people fled the fighting in Swat Valley, bringing the total number of displaced since August 2008 to one million. Many are crowded into camps and confidence in the government’s ability to provide and protect is decreasing at an accelerating rate. Prime Minister Gilani announced that US$12 million would be set aside for the refugees. As it stands, neither the government nor Pakistan’s aid agencies have the capacity to cope with the worsening crisis.
The military’s over-reliance on artillery, helicopters, and military aircraft has played a major role in exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and high number of civilian casualties. If little is done to address the growing collateral damage, Pakistan’s Taliban will find it increasingly easy to recruit refugees displaced by fighting. The result will be decreasing support for the military’s offensive in Swat Valley and for calls to negotiate a ceasefire.
Intensified Violence
Pakistani Taliban militants are likely to seek reprisal attacks against the country’s major cities. In the near-term, we expect militants to focus their reprisal attacks on the Swat Valley and Peshawar. Fighters will likely later seek to target other cities, such as Islamabad and Rawalpindi, in an effort to punish the government for launching the operation. We judge with moderate to high confidence militants will successfully perpetuate an attack against civilian or military infrastructure outside of NWFP and FATA in the near-term.
We do not believe the government’s goal of eliminating all militants from Swat Valley is achievable in the near to medium-term. While the campaign will continue for the coming days and weeks, the government is likely to resort to an uneasy ceasefire in the medium-term. The ceasefire will not end violence but will rather allow Taliban militants to regain previously lost territory. The latest military offensive shows signs the Pakistani government is beginning to realize the seriousness of the Taliban threat, but it lacks the capabilities to provide for the refugees, defeat militants, and establish long-term stability in Swat Valley.
