Highlights
– “El Para” is the second leader to denounce al-Qaeda this year
– Algeria, Mali, Niger, Mauritania, and Morocco coordinate anti-terror tactics to combat AOIM in region
– AOIM remains highly active; recruitment techniques and operations intensify in retaliation in coming weeks
Beginning in mid-April, Algeria initiated a widespread campaign across several North African countries, including Mali, Niger, Mauritania and Morocco, to better combat militants from the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM). As a result, the military forces of these countries carried out multiple large-scale sweeps across their porous borders with moderate success. Over 20 militants were either arrested or killed in the raids – an accomplishment for Algeria and Morocco, which suffered the largest blows to their respective security forces and civilians from terrorist attacks in past years.
Additionally, previously surrendered militants are appearing in local newspapers and on jihadist websites calling for AOIM militants to accept government amnesty and surrender their weapons. An infamous ex-leader of the group, “El Para,” renounced al-Qaeda in a document entitled “Repentance and Denunciation.” The Algerian government has enthusiastically distributed thousands of copies in the Sahel region. El Para is the second major terrorist to surrender this year, following in the footsteps of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) founder Hassan Hattab, who surrendered in January.
AOIM militants are reluctant to accept such amnesty deals from the Algerian government. As much as the North African coalition of forces is making progress in the fight against terrorists, the AOIM shows no signs of acquiescing to such surrender calls. Following El Para’s plea, AOIM militants battled with Algerian soldiers in Trachta, killing two.
The group increased the number of online statements and audio videos on jihadist websites to recruit more members to the group and encourage support for the jihad. The surrender of another highly acclaimed terrorist may devastate the group’s morale in the near term. Yet, the group will continue to carry out attacks and engage in recruiting campaigns to make up for such losses in the medium-term.
Reason Behind Surrender
The Algerian government established the amnesty program in 2006 for militants who surrendered their weapons and denounced al-Qaeda as part of strategy to split the insurgents. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s amnesty program consists of financial aid and other help from the government for ex-militants in exchange for their complete surrender to the authorities. A few hundred militants have left their mountain hideouts and rejoined society since the amnesty program was announced.
Former leaders, like Hattab and El Para, accepted amnesty while in prison. El Para was the mastermind of the 2003 kidnapping of 32 European tourists . He was arrested shortly after and given a life jail sentence. When faced with life in prison and likely exposed to daily or weekly torture techniques, accepting amnesty and denouncing al-Qaeda becomes a viable option. Hattab was not in prison when he accepted amnesty, but he was facing significant difficulty in unifying the GSPC (the precursor to the AOIM). The group began to fragment and splinter cells were created, each with its own leadership. The AOIM was formed during this time and Hattab accepted amnesty soon thereafter.
In both instances the leaders lost hope. Reasons not to accept amnesty were few and made little sense. Hattab and Para were able to compromise their militant mentality for acceptance and hope. They changed their ideology to accommodate their change of heart, as El Para states,
• “Armed action brought pain and suffering to our people… the truth is that such actions have nothing to do with Islam.”
Hundreds of militants freed themselves from the slavery of militant ideology after Hattab’s public surrender, as if they were awaiting the OK from a trusted advisor. El Para’s surrender may also lead to number of militants turning themselves in to the authorities, yet the bulk of the organization will likely retaliate against the government.
Forecast: Surrendering and Battling
The AOIM reacted to El Para’s amnesty acceptance by attacking Algerian soldiers in Trachta. Similar attacks will continue as militants seek to boost morale among their followers.
At the outset, El Para’s surrender may be the encouragement some militants were hoping for to get them out of the AOIM. For others, and likely the majority of AOIM militants, El Para’s surrender will motivate them to work harder in recruiting more fighters. The group will compensate their potential loss of manpower by carrying out more attacks against security forces and by posting more propaganda statements on jihadist websites in the near to medium-term.
