Highlights
– Nepal’s Maoist-led government falls over dispute with president
– New governing coalition to face strong opposition from all sides
– Chances of renewed conflict low, as is political conciliation
Nepal has found itself a new governing coalition, shortly after the fall of its former ultra-leftist one. The Communist United-Marxist-Leninist (UML) party, more centrist than its name suggests, has agreed to head a new coalition in Kathmandu.
Maoists who supported former Prime Minister Prachanda have vowed not to permit parliament to function unless President Yadav, responsible for overriding Prachanda’s decision to sack Nepal’s Army Chief, apologizes for circumventing his constitutional authority.
We expect no such apology to follow and for Maoist supporters, particularly the thuggish Young Communist League, to stage protests while attempting to disrupt the seating of parliament in the coming days.
What of 19,000 rebels?
Nepal’s Maoist leader, Pushpa Kama Dahal (also known as “Prachanda”), announced his resignation as Prime Minister on Monday following a dispute with President Ram Baran Yadav. The dispute, which resulted in the collapse of the ultra-leftist governing coalition, revolved around the inclusion of 19,000 rebel soldiers into Nepal’s army.
The soldiers in question are a legacy of the ten-year civil war between Maoists and monarchists that ended in 2006. According to the terms of a United Nations (UN) brokered ceasefire, the rebel soldiers would either be included into Nepal’s National Army or provided alternative employment. To date, the 19,000 remain confined to UN camps.
Prachanda’s unilateral move to fire General Rookmangud Katawal – a strong critic of the plan to permit the rebels entry into the army – with a leader more willing to integrate his fellow ex-rebels, was widely supported by many Maoist hardliners. As such, President Yadav’s move to trump Prachanda’s decision has outraged that same constituency.
For the time being, short of some protests and confrontations with police forces, we do not foresee a return to civil war. However, small-scale fighting between Maoists and government forces remains a concern, particularly as a number of agreements following the civil war have not yet been enacted.
Major Issues Yet to be Addressed
Facing the new government will be the challenge of addressing the 19,000 rebels still encamped in UN-quartered facilities, writing a new constitution and attempting to maintain stability in the fledgling democratic state.
Further aggravating the likelihood of addressing those issues will be Nepal’s opposition. While the collapse of the communist-led governing coalition appeared to offer a window of opportunity for anti-maoist parties, the groups remain too fractured and contentious to take advantage of the situation. Further, the Nepali Congress party, leading the opposition with some 110 seats, fared poorly in the 2006 elections and has maintained a recalcitrant stance towards the governing coalition ever since. Without the Congress Party’s return, no legitimate coalition will be able to form a stable government in the near to medium-term.
Indian Influence
The likelihood that the army would consider attempting to grasp power remains low, particularly as it would require Indian support, a situation we do not see as long as violence does not take the place of political jockeying. We assess India becoming more supportive of a military coup if violence escalates between the Maoists and the opposition parties.