Highlights
– Turkey and Armenia announce a road map to normalize relations
– Nagorno-Karabakh, genocide claims, and other obstacles will delay full diplomatic ties
– Energy and tourism sectors could benefit most from normalized diplomatic relations and an opened border in the long-term
On April 22, 2009 the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and Armenia announced a road map toward establishing full bi-lateral relations between the two countries. Despite the optimism associated with the agreement, many hurdles remain before Turkey and Armenia will engage in normal diplomatic and economic relations. International energy and tourism companies could be the biggest winners from normalized relations and a reopened border in the long-term.
Agreement Reached
The international community largely welcomed the agreement’s announcement as a path toward resolving a long-standing dispute between the two neighbors. On principle, the agreement may serve as a means by which to increase stability and the economic prospects of the South Caucasus region. After two years of mediated talks in Switzerland, the announcement follows the September 2008 trip by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan, the first visit of a Turkish President to the Armenian capital. Armenia’s President, Serzh Sargsyan, is expected to visit Istanbul in October 2009.
The timing of the agreement was meant to preempt April 24, 2009 commentary by United States (US) President Barack Obama on the anniversary of the 1915 slaughter of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Turks.
Hurdles To Overcome
Turkey’s willingness to follow the agreement will be restrained by an allegiance to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Mamed Maedkuliev, noted that his country believes normalization of ties between Armenia and Turkey are only possible on condition that Armenian forces withdraw from the Azeri territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Azeri officials visited Moscow last week and suggested that if Turkey opens its border with Armenia it may be foregoing future sales of Azeri gas. The border was closed in 1993 as part of Turkey’s response to Armenia’s war with Azerbaijan.
Armenia has so far successfully avoided the inclusion of the NK peace process in discussion with Turkey. Yet, the NK conflict and improving diplomatic relations with Armenia are not mutually exclusive. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has twice stated Turkey will not establish diplomatic relations with Armenia nor open the Turkish-Armenian border before a resolution of the NK conflict.
Armenia’s desire for international recognition of its claims that the massacre of Armenians in 1915 was genocide presents a second hurdle. As part of the agreement, Turkey and Armenia will create a new committee to address the issue of the 1915 massacres. Still, the two sides have yet to decide on the structure of the new committee or the method of study. Turkey has so far been generally successful in preventing other countries from recognizing the 1915 massacre as genocide.
Third party statements could derail the agreement if any country announces a resolution stating that the 1915 massacres qualify as genocide. Obama, who pledged to recognize the Armenian claims regarding the 1915 incident during his presidential campaign, did not use the word “genocide” while describing the events in his annual April 24 statement to mark the “day of remembrance of the Armenian deaths.” Instead, he used the Armenian term for the killings, “Meds Yeghern,” which has been variously translated into English as the “Great Calamity” or “Great Disaster.” He also branded the events as “one of the great atrocities of the 20th century.”
Repercussions
This agreement, announced in a joint statement between two adversarial countries, will strengthen the currently tenuous relations between Turkey and Armenia in the near term. In the medium to long-term, establishing a path toward normal diplomatic relations can lead to economic and diplomatic improvements for both countries. Renewed relations and an open border would resolve one of the longest outstanding issues barring Turkey’s accession to the European Union.
Improved relations with Armenia, and an open transit corridor through the southern Caucasus, could create an east-west transit corridor for energy pipelines from the Caspian Sea to supplement the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gas pipelines, and compete with Russia’s Blue Stream pipeline. This could lower the price and increase the reliability of oil and natural gas transiting from the Caspian to Europe.
The Armenian Diaspora is one of the largest in the world, with significant communities located in the United States and Europe. While most Armenians hold very negative views of Turkey, the country is the location of one of the most vaunted locations in Armenian culture: Mount Ararat. If the border between Armenia and Turkey were to be opened, the Armenian Diaspora may be inclined to begin crossing that border to visit a country they have long avoided.
Despite the benefits outlined, the likelihood of normal diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia remains low. Azerbaijan will insist on tying any agreement to a resolution of the NK conflict. Russia will likely use its leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan to maintain its controlling interest in energy resource routes between Central Asia and Europe. Too many marked obstacles stand in the way for both countries to travel their road map quickly without breakdowns along the way.
