Highlights
– Offensive in Lower Dir likely to result in the collapse of Malakand agreement
– Buner offensive indicative of Pakistani Taliban’s expansionist aims
– Violence in Malakand districts expected to escalate in near to medium-term
The Pakistani government authorized a military offensive in Lower Dir district in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on April 26, 2009. The move undermined the legitimacy of the Swat Valley agreement and prompted Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, specifically those belonging to Sufi Muhammad’s Tehrik-e-Nifaaz Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM) movement, to suspend peace talks.
The Pakistani government and TNSM militants previously signed a peace agreement in Swat Valley for the surrounding districts in Malakand Division. The agreement allowed the establishment of Sharia Law if the militants agreed to disarm and end their violent campaign. The agreement generated harsh criticisms from the United States and the international community as the arrangement may embolden Taliban militants.
The decision by the Pakistani government to launch an offensive in Lower Dir district, part of the region covered by the pact, will likely lead to the agreement’s revocation. The latest violence in Buner demonstrates the unrealistic expectations of proposing a cease-fire with the TNSM militants. Violence is likely to ensue, with instability not expected to remain confined to Malakand. The likelihood for terrorist attacks in areas outside the region, particularly in Islamabad, increases as violence in the region worsens.
Entering Buner District
Taliban militants occupied Buner district by force on April 10, 2009, but agreed to withdrawal from the district days later. Despite their agreement to leave, these militants currently control over 10 to 15 percent of the region, and are using the Swat Valley as a base to launch operations into the District.
Despite a peace agreement, Pakistani Taliban militants seek to expand their political influence to surrounding districts. Buner’s close proximity to Islamabad raises concern for future potential assault on the capital, although this scenario is unlikely in the near term.
Further evidence over the loss of support in the Malakand deal was the firing of Syed Mohammed Javed, the Commissioner of Malakand and architect behind the Swat deal. Javed was allegedly fired for maintaining close contacts with several wanted Taliban commanders, and possibly al Qaeda’s deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Offensive in Lower Dir
Pakistan’s decision to launch an offensive in Lower Dir district is likely to result in at least the temporary collapse of the Malakand agreement. The operation will prove to be a major obstacle to any further peace talks with the militants. The offensive appears to signal a stronger resolve by Pakistan’s government to challenge moves by Taliban factions to expand the areas they control outside of Swat.
Outlook
Given the Pakistani Taliban’s expansionist aims, the agreement’s goal of restoring a sense of peace in the region is no longer feasible. International pressure on the Pakistani government, and the refusal of both sides to abide by the agreement’s parameters, doomed the deal from the outset. The deal’s ultimate collapse is likely in the near-term due to the TNSMs’ decision to infiltrate Buner and the government’s latest offensive in Lower Dir. We do not assess future agreements between the government and the Taliban as likely. Any future negotiations will most likely address local ceasefires rather than large-scale efforts to find a settlement on region-wide conflict.
A collapse of the Malakand accord is likely to result in a major escalation of violence between Pakistani Taliban militants and the Pakistan military, specifically in Swat Valley, Buner, Shangla, the Lower Dir, and the districts of Mardan and Swabi.
