Highlights
– US withdrawal will expose weaknesses in central government authority
– Economic prospects and renewed interethnic conflict will determine Iraq’s future
– General elections will increase near-term threats, but may lead to more sustainable security in the medium to long-term if national parties win
Violent terrorist attacks in Iraq have become localized and far less destructive than at the height of the insurgency. The American-backed Sunni uprising against al-Qaeda, combined with increased troop levels to provide security, created the conditions necessary for a nascent national identity to reemerge.
This new sense of security has allowed the United States (US) to refocus its forces abroad. As it begins to do so, cracks are emerging in the Iraqi government’s ability to maintain security throughout the country. We believe only improved economic conditions and sectarian relations will allow Iraq to continue as a unified state in the medium to long-term.
Terrorist Attacks Nadir As Occupation Ends
The recent series of terrorist attacks in Mosul and Diyala provinces demonstrate the continuing threat the insurgency poses to a unified Iraq. Civilian deaths from terrorist attacks, now at approximately 350 per month, are about one-tenth of the level of deaths during the height of the insurgency in 2006-07. This reduction in attacks bodes well for long-term stability in the country.
Although Iraq’s security is far better than it was two years ago, the insurgency is not over. Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia will remain active and may increase its assaults as the drawdown of US and allied forces opens gaps in the country’s security in the near-term.
Sunni-Shia Internecine Rivalries Remain Unresolved
As part of America’s drawdown from Iraq’s security operations, the US has halted its subsidy for the approximately 100,000 mainly Sunni former-militants who joined the “Sons of Iraq” movement. These men have been conducting paramilitary policing rolls in their neighborhoods, with the intention of creating security and stability where none previously existed.
In exchange for these actions, the sons of Iraq were promised reliable salaries and future government employment in the police or military. America’s subsidy for this purpose was to be replaced by direct payments from the Iraqi central government. Yet, many of these Sunnis have not been paid since the last American fund disbursement in January. Should Iraq’s economic environment not improve fast enough – the likelihood of which still remains in doubt – disgruntled former militants may return to the insurgency.
Economic growth remains restrained because international firms cannot trust the reliability of their investments in Iraq’s oil infrastructure. Combined with the lack of an oil law deterring international investment, low oil prices and reduced production levels have depleted government coffers, out of which payments for the sons of Iraq were allocated. With unemployment high across the country, economic growth could be a driver for ethnic stability by allowing the government to maintain payments for the sons of Iraq and other sectarian groups. Without such growth, sectarian violence will likely increase in the near to medium-term as ethnic and religious groups look to protect and provide for their own.
Kurdish Dilemma Remains Thorn in Iraq’s Side
The Sunni-Shia mistrust pales in comparison to the lack of faith both groups have for their Kurdish compatriots. The Kurds, who have been autonomous for more than twenty years, fear the central government’s drive for greater authority under Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. This fear has prevented the passage of a national oil law, which would solidify the interests of all three ethnic groups in oil industry profits. However, as most of Iraq’s oil is located in or near the country’s north, it is unlikely that the Kurds would be willing to forgo energy revenue without concomitant value in return – something Baghdad does not appear equipped to offer at present.
Secularism Wins at the Polls
Religious parties had been responsible for the lion’s share of the sectarian conflict hindering Iraq’s emergence from Saddam’s overthrow. The most recent local elections dealt religious parties a severe beating. National oriented parties focused on addressing corruption, economic issues, and other national programs were the biggest winners, signifying a new, but frail, focus on issue-oriented politics over sectarian strife. Although no politician yet appeals to all Iraqis on a national level, politicians and parties who argue for a more strongly centralized state fared better than those who urged devolution for the regions.
With general elections scheduled to take place by the end of the year, Prime Minister Maliki is well positioned to increase his support across the country by tapping into this national sentiment. He is running on an anti-corruption national unity ticket he believes will continue the trend toward a nationally focused electorate. His party did very well in the local elections. With increasing security, economic prospects, and the departure of Americans, the national sentiment could help propel his supporters to electoral victory.
Outlook
Renewed ethnic conflicts, arising from the US withdrawal, will determine if Iraq can be unified, or if it will become a fractured state broken by ethnic and religious differences. Barring high levels of inter-ethnic violence, Iraq’s general elections will likely lead to the creation of a nationally focused political movement intent on binding the country together and reducing sectarian strife.
Despite the presence of continuing terrorist violence and ethnic based militias, Iraq will likely emerge as a country with an increasingly strong central government. In the medium to long-term, Iraq’s government will be capable of administering authority over most provinces throughout the country. We note, however, that the Kurdish north will likely remain a semi-autonomous entity for years to come.
Key to all of Iraq’s stability is the country’s ability to achieve economic growth to reduce the massive level of unemployment plaguing the country and feeding ethnic conflict. If the masses of idle young men can be put toward constructive work, ethnic violence will be limited and the country will remain united. Iraq’s Kurds will nevertheless serve as the biggest hurdle toward achieving such a goal as they latch on to their autonomous ethnic enclave and monopoly over much of the country’s energy resources.
