Highlights
– Nationalist Turkish Cypriot party wins 44 percent of parliamentary vote
– Reunification talks in jeopardy
– Election sets the stage for a potential clash between Turkish Cypriot authorities
The parliamentary victory for the National Unity Party (UBP) in the Turkish Republic of Cyprus (TRNC) could jeopardize reunification talks on the island of Cyprus.
Since September 2008, Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias have conducted preliminary rounds of talks for reunifying Cyprus as a federation of two ethnic regions. Sunday’s election threatens to complicate the process as a stronger UBP, which supports a nationalist agenda and backs a two-state model, now holds a 26-seat majority in the 50-seat de facto assembly.
A nationalist majority could undermine Talat’s political bargaining influence in the talks. The UBP ran on a campaign against Talat’s policy of reconciliation and failed economic policies. The UBP will soon appoint a representative to accompany Talat in the talks, likely indicative of future disputes over the agenda between the competing Turkish parties.
A collapse of the latest round of reunification talks would not be welcomed by either side as the island’s tourism sector and economy are suffering in the current global recession.
Spotlight on Ankara
Turkey’s support of the de facto government in the Cyprus north has intensified the more than 30-year standoff on the island. Officially an EU member in 2004, the Greek Cypriot majority in the south has since blocked EU diplomatic gestures to the Turkish Cypriots in the north, as well as Turkey’s bid to join the 28-member bloc. In retaliation, Turkey stationed its military in the northern part of the island and closed its ports and airports to the Republic of Cyprus indefinitely.
Given that Turkey is the only government to recognize the administration in the breakaway Cyprus north, Ankara essentially controls the fate of the EU accession chapter which focuses on resolving the division of Cyprus. The Greek Cypriots have vehemently rejected the UBP’s two-state solution for years. Maintaining pressure on the UBP to ensure that reunification talks continue and focus on a unified federation will please EU officials. However, internal bickering between UBP and CTP will negatively affect Turkey’s chances of joining the EU in the near-term.
Outlook
The Republic of Cyprus’s economy is heavily dominated by the services sector, with tourism accounting for nearly 11 percent of Cypriot gross domestic product (Source). The current global recession has dramatically impacted the island’s economy, largely due to a lower foreign demand for Cypriot exports and services, as well as a general decline in property sales. In March 2009, tourist arrivals fell more than 16 percent compared to a year earlier. A return to a nationalistic agenda from the TRNC would likely rouse tensions between the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriots and discourage tourism and foreign direct investment in the near-term.
