-Opposition leaders call for President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign
-Rifts in the opposition likely to complicate efforts to find solutions
-Saakashvili unlikely to resign in near-term
More than 60,000 people demonstrated against Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili on April 9, 2009, demanding that he resign immediately. Public support for the opposition-led protest campaign appears to be slipping as turnout has fallen since the start of the demonstrations earlier this year.
The Georgian President is unlikely to cede to opposition demands for his resignation in the near-term as he remains determined to serve out his full term. He repeatedly has offered dialogue with certain opposition parties in an attempt to alleviate pressure and restore political stability. Opposition parties are more likely to seek some sort of deal with President Saakashvili rather than actively force his departure as street demonstrations wane and support diminishes.
Opposition Grievances
Protesters and opposition figures are accusing President Saakashvili of leading Georgia into a disastrous war with Russia. In addition to mishandling the conflict with Russia, opposition figures accuse Saakashvili of turning increasingly autocratic since coming to power following the 2003 Rose Revolution. He has placed restrictions on the country’s judiciary and media.
At the forefront of the opposition are two figures: former diplomat Irakli Alasania of the Alliance for Georgia, and Nino Burjanadze, leader of the Democratic Movement-United Georgia party. Alasania joined more radical elements of the opposition by urging people to take to the streets, but has softened his tone since April 9th by agreeing to talks with Saakashvili. Following Alasania’s decision to hold talks, some protest participants reacted angrily, including Burjanadze who remains hesitant of seeking dialogue with Saakashvili. The varied reactions showcased potential rifts in the opposition, likely to complicate future efforts at reconciliation.
Russian Factor
Saakashvili has accused Russian oligarchs of funding the Georgian opposition movement under the supervision of the Russian government. It is common for President Saakashvili to make such accusations, as he often highlights Russian intervention in Georgian affairs, specifically attempts to oust him from power.
Saakashvili claims to have documentary proof that Russian oligarchs and government officials are funding efforts to topple him. Thus far, he has refused to present this information to the public.
There is little question of Russia’s, specifically Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s, dislike of Mikhail Saakashvili, but evidence is yet to be made public suggesting Russia is funding and organizing the latest demonstrations against the Georgian President. Though the extent of Russia’s involvement in disrupting Georgian affairs is not entirely clear, we believe Moscow is actively engaged in attempting to destabilize the breakaway republic in an effort to exert greater control over its traditional sphere of influence.
Saakashvili’s Future
President Saakashvili has dismissed the threat posed by the opposition, claiming it lacks the popular support needed to force his resignation or call early elections. The Georgian leader has consistently maintained that he is determined to serve out his full term, which ends in 2013. Saakashvili’s determination and refusal to concede is likely to frustrate opposition leaders, complicating efforts to establish national long-term political stability.
Some light was shed on the situation when opposition leader Irakli Alasania indicated he would be willing to engage in dialogue with Saakashvili. Given the negative reaction from other elements of the opposition, we assess a low likelihood that the opposition will achieve the political clout to force Saakashvili’s resignation. Despite resignations from some senior allies and repeated cabinet reshuffling, Saakashvili’s position as President appears strong for the time being.
Whether the Georgian leader’s position will remain strong will largely depend on how he deals with opposition figures and reacts to the street demonstrations. While the decreasing number of protesters in the streets of Tbilisi is promising for Saakashvili, there is still potential for the campaign to spark renewed unrest. Saakashvili is committed to avoiding the use of force to disperse protests, but that policy would likely change if protesters were able to maintain a sustained presence in the streets of the capital or revert to violence themselves.
Violent clashes between police and protesters would provoke Western anger and enhance pressure on Saakashvili to either quickly establish an agreement with the opposition or resign from office. The Georgian leader continues to have the support of the United States, but that support would likely fade following a crackdown against the opposition, weakening Saakashvili’s stature in the international community.
