– Tensions flare between Uganda and Kenya over ongoing Migingo Island territorial dispute
– Migingo is known for the richest remaining deep-water fishing in Lake Victoria
– Ongoing conflict could severely impact the two trading partners’ economies and greatly injure hopes for a unified East African Community
Migingo Island is an uneven, rocky field less than an acre wide located in Lake Victoria between Uganda and Kenya. Housing close to 500 people, 80 percent of whom are Kenyan, this small island has been the source of ongoing territorial conflict between the two allies in recent months.
Migingo has turned into a melting pot of fisherman from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, overseen by Ugandan police. The governments of Uganda and Kenya have engaged in a number of territorial and conflict-resolution talks in the last month, but to no avail. Instead, the talks have lead to a diplomatic clash between the two longtime allies.
Violent Clashes May be on the Horizon
Tensions on the island have heightened since Ugandan police detained nine Kenyan fishermen on April 7. This has raised fears of violent clashes in the near to medium-term. Following the arrests and failed talks, local leaders in Kisumu, Kenya have threatened to block its trade routes and vowed to call for a protest if Uganda does not vacate the island.
Though we do not anticipate Uganda and Kenya will go to war over the small island, we believe a prolonged dispute could result in a severe economic backlash for both countries. We are concerned about the recent severing of diplomatic relations between the two, and the potential long-term impact on regional stability.
Dispute Timeline and History
• 1991 – Two Kenyan fisherman, Dalmas Tembo and George Kibebe, claim to have been the first inhabitants on the island.
• 2004 – A Ugandan fisherman, Joseph Nsubuga, settled in Migingo and found it desolate. Subsequently, other fishermen from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania came to the island because of its vicinity to one of the richest remaining Nile Perch (a highly lucrative export) fishing grounds. The influx of fishermen attracted pirates, some with assault rifles, stealing engines, fish and cash.
• June 2004 – After appealing to their respective governments for help against the pirates, Uganda was first to send a detachment of maritime police, who raised a Ugandan flag upon arrival. Ugandan and Kenyan police have since occupied the island at various times.
• September 25, 2008 – Ugandan authorities expelled over 400 Kenyan fishermen after they refused to pay 50,000 shillings worth of annual operation fees.
• February 2009 – The Ugandan Government required Kenyans living on Migingo to purchase special permits, which fueled the current diplomatic row.
• March 13, 2009 – Several ministers from Kenya and Uganda met in Kampala and reached an agreement that allowed fishermen from both countries to continue conducting business, until land survey experts determined the boundary. They also agreed that Uganda withdraw the 48 troops it had deployed on Migingo and remove its flag.
• March 27, 2009 – Tensions escalate further when Ugandan and Kenyan ministers travel to Migingo to hold negotiations and address the residents. The meeting ended with each delegation personally insulting the other. The Ugandan delegation insisted that they would remove the flag only after consulting the Office of the President of Uganda, and that the troops were there to keep law and order. Kenya replied that they would be sending police to the island.
• April 7, 2009 – Ugandan forces detain nine Kenyan fishermen for fishing in Ugandan waters.
• April 12, 2009 – Leaders in Kenya threatened to block the transportation of goods and fuel to Uganda and call for protests if its troops do not evacuate Migingo.
Conflict Escalates, Economic Consequences
The potential consequences of the Migingo Island dispute could be extremely detrimental to the local and regional economy of the East African Community (EAC). Uganda relies heavily on Kenya’s Mombasa Port for trading its goods internationally. Conversely, Kenya supplies 30 percent of its markets with Ugandan goods. The unity and development of the EAC will likely remain in jeopardy until a resolution over the territorial dispute can be reached.
In the near to medium-term, we expect the conflict on the island to escalate and could possibly turn violent. As both economies face severe disruption, we believe Kenya and Uganda will continue to hold talks until a diplomatic resolution is reached in the near to medium-term.
