Highlights
-United Liberation Front of Asom celebrates anniversary with renewed bombing
-Group’s connection with foreign intelligence organizations remain
-Bombings expected to continue as eastern India largely neglected
In the past two decades more than 10,000 people have lost their lives to the insurgency raging in Assam state. Alongside a number of loosely affiliated separatists groups, fighters of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) have waged a campaign for independence since 1979.
Altogether, 107 people have been killed and 449 others injured in bomb blasts that have rocked Assam in the last six months. Monday’s explosions, which left nine dead and over seventy injured, are a stark reminder of the group’s capabilities and intentions, and further evidence of the threat India faces from within.
Current Standing
Current estimates suggest ULFA maintains several thousand members, though a more precise figure is unknown. Bases once established in neighboring Bhutan have since been destroyed, while the group’s leadership is believed to be hiding in Bangladesh, possibly with the assistance of the Directorate General of Field Intelligence (DGFI) of Bangladesh, the country’s external security apparatus.
Outside Influence
In Assam, the ULFA are substantially influenced by anti-India external elements like the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Harakat ul Jihad Islami (HuJI), another Pakistan affiliated group seeking independence from Indian-controlled Kashmiri territory.
ULFA soldiers have allegedly trained in bases in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, often through the assistance of the ISI. Available evidence indicates that the ULFA-ISI nexus began in the early 1990s. The ISI has been training ULFA cadres in the use of specialized arms.
The group has long been connected with separatist groups in neighboring Myanmar, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), through whom the group acquired training and arms.
The group allegedly developed contacts with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), through the ISI, that enabled ULFA to take advantage of the Tamil group’s arms-shipment network.
In addition to having established a number of legitimate businesses in Bangladesh from which the group earns funds, ULFA allegedly has established profitable narcotics businesses in Myanmar and Thailand.
Raising Day
On April 6, 2009, the eve of the group’s anniversary celebrating thirty years of fighting for an independent Assamese state, eight people were killed and dozens hurt in four separate explosions in towns and cities across Assam. ULFA regularly celebrates its anniversary, referred to as “Raising Day”, with bombings throughout Assam.
Monday’s incidents were the second within a week after suspected ULFA activists carried out explosions on March 31 minutes before External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukerjee was scheduled to address an election meeting.
The attacks come just prior to a scheduled visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the region. Singh is campaigning in Assam ahead of general elections.
Recent Bombings
The following is a chronology of bomb blasts in Assam since October 30, 2009:
April 6, 2009: Nine killed, 70 injured in four bomb blasts at Guwahati, Dhekiajuli, Karbi Anglong and Mankachar on the eve of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the state for election campaign in Dibrugarh and ULFA’s raising day on Tuesday.
March 31, 2009: One killed, 16 injured in a bomb blast at Jyotikuchi in Guwahati during External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s election campaign in the city.
Jan 9, 2009: Three killed, 20 injured in a bomb blast at Maligaon shuttle gate in Guwahati.
Jan 1, 2009: Five killed and more than 50 injured in three serial blasts in Guwahati hours before the arrival of Union Home Minister P Chidambaram and on the eve of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s arrival enroute to Shillong on January 2nd.
October 30, 2008: 91 killed, 320 injured in a series of blasts that rocked Guwahati, Kokrajhar and Barpeta.
Over 100 hundred people have been killed and nearly 500 injured in blasts attributed to ULFA in the past six months. The group appears to demonstrate a strong capability and determination to continue fighting for the foreseeable future.
Leadership
Though a number of high-ranking ULFA’s members have been arrested in Bangladesh over the past several years, the group’s decision-making apparatus continues to operate effectively, with devastating results.
Paresh Barua, the group’s chief military commander, has lived in Bangladesh since 1990, under the alias Kamruj Zaman Khan. He is said to own a large business empire in Bangladesh worth an estimated Rupees 300 million (US$6 million). Indian intelligence sources believe Barua is deeply involved in ISI terror-related activities along the Indian-Bangladesh border.
Allegations of an ISI connection come from a pro-peace ULFA leader, Mrinal Hazarika, who stated in New Delhi that Barua, Chetia and Rajkhowa had close links with the ISI, DGFI and some Islamic organizations. Without that support, he claimed, it would not be possible for ULFA to have bases in Bangladesh.
Factional Infighting
In 2008, a dissident faction of ULFA, known as the ULFA (pro-talk group) declared a unilateral ceasefire with the government. This group accused ULFA’s top leadership, including the commander-in-chief Paresh Barua and chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, of lack of interest in a negotiated settlement. Though the move suggested inroads towards a negotiated peace settlement could be made, the military arm of ULFA has shown no signs of a willingness to negotiate a settlement.
Outlook
ULFA’s ability to carryout large-scale and well coordinated multiple bomb attacks remains strong. Through a vast network of external support, the group has maintained a constant presence in Assam. We foresee no change in that position in the near to medium term.
Since the Mumbai blasts on November 26, 2008, India has maintained that the ISI may have played a role in both training and arming the individuals responsible for the attack, presumably to foster discontent and create instability in India. That similar support has been extended to the ULFA is not beyond doubt.
We see some promise in the election of Bangladesh’s new secular government, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League. Hasina will likely attempt to put some pressure on Indian insurgents living and operating in Bangladesh, cracking down on some insurgent camps. However, her efforts may be stifled by the DGFI support for those groups.
