Highlights
-Bouteflika expected to win April 9 presidential elections
-Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb recruits fighters to disrupt election
-Opposition agrees to boycott election, unrest will increase in near-term
Algerians from all walks of life, including civil servants, politicians, and Islamic militants, have geared up for this week’s presidential elections, where incumbent President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is almost certain to win.
Safety and Democracy at Risk
After opposition party candidates agreed to boycott the elections, following mass protests in Algeria last week, Bouteflika will be left virtually unopposed on April 9th. Security forces have ramped up their safety measures, including increasing the number of police around polling sites and major civil venues.
Army forces have also boosted their activity in recent days, arresting a number of militants from the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) in a series of anti-terror operations. The arrests followed soon after intelligence revealed that AOIM members have been recruiting volunteers from countries, such as Mali, Mauritania and Niger to carry out attacks against security forces on the eve of the elections.
Algerians are becoming increasingly restless over the lack of real democratic change. A majority of Algerians disagree with Bouteflika’s re-election. However, last year’s constitutional reform removing term limits and the opposition parties’ boycott of the elections will lead to Bouteflika maintaining his presidential seat for the medium to long-term. As a result, we expect serious unrest with possible violence in the days leading up to and possibly following the election. We believe the AOIM will continue to conduct attacks against security forces, with a medium to large-scale attack on election day.
“Tunisian Syndrome”
A number of human rights officials claim that the outcome of this week’s election was decided on November 12, 2008. On that day, President Bouteflika in power since 1999, passed a constitutional reform bill that eliminated term limits for the presidency (Previous Report). The opposition has nicknamed the reform the “Tunisian Syndrome,” in reference to Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s longstanding reign.
Over 5,000 Algerians called for a boycott of the election in a mass protest in Tizi Ouzou on April 2. They protested Bouteflika’s domination of the campaign. At least three of the opposition candidates, who believe the state-controlled media has largely ignored them, have agreed to bow out of the election. Despite the 100 African Union observers and four delegates from the Arab League scheduled to monitor the voting process, most Algerians believe fraud will be wide spread.
AOIM Expected to Attack
The AOIM has urged Algerians not to vote in the election, but to overthrow the government instead. In a statement released on April 5, AOIM called on Muslims to “rebel against [the Algerian government] and overthrow them.”
Militants have stepped up attacks in Algeria over the past few months. In late March, the AOIM deployed at least 40 fighters to the southern Algerian town of Ouargia. The group has sought to smuggle weapons, including missiles and rockets, from Mali. We believe the organization is gearing up to carry out medium to large-scale attacks against security forces and government institutions in an effort to disrupt the elections.
Security forces have also increased their operations in preparation for this week’s election. On April 3, Algerian army forces captured seven AOIM militants, including a group leader, in an ambush in Bouraira State, east of Algiers. Security forces will continue to conduct arrest operations before and after the election.
Unrest Ensues
We anticipate political unrest to increase in the weeks following the election. With 79-year-old Bouteflika in a strong position to win, we assess a majority of Algerians, who are discontent with the 17-year state of emergency and the declining promise of democracy, to carry out mass protests in the near to medium-term. If re-elected, Bouteflika will serve another five-years in office, during which time he will likely endure severe backlash from a disenchanted republic. Until real democratic change materializes, and until the AOIM threat lessens, we anticipate frequent outbreaks of political and social unrest in Algeria.