Highlights
– US releases new southern border initiative
– Secretary of State admits “shared responsibility” in the conflict
– We believe the initial deployment represents the beginning of a long-term process to end drug trafficking between the two countries.
On March 24, 2009, the Obama Administration released a US$700 million plan to combat drug trafficking operations in Mexico. The initiative will be a multi-agency effort aimed at targeting illicit trafficking and money laundering operations that supply cartel organizations. A secondary aim of the funds will be to prevent the spillover of violence inside the United States.
We believe this plan is the first step in what will be a long-term effort by both governments to pacify the border and reduce supply and demand of narcotics and weapons. The US will introduce further initiatives and funding to support these measures, largely focusing on strengthening border security and intensifying seizures of narcotics and arms traveling from the US into Mexico. The US will also begin programs to reduce drug demand within America’s borders.
Two Objectives
On March 24, 2009, the Obama administration revealed its promised anti-trafficking plan indicating there would be rapid deployment of approximately 500 federal agents and intelligence analysts to the border. The US$700 million plan for 2009 will fund the implementation of a variety of bilateral security programs, including improving cross-border interdiction efforts, upgrading intelligence-gathering methods and establishing corruption-resistant police agencies and courts.
The program will position federal personnel at the United States (US) side of the shared border to conduct inspections of vehicles traveling into Mexico to barricade illicit weapons and money. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) will send 100 employees to the border within the next 45 days to fortify Project Gunrunner, while a newly formed Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) unit will investigate cartel kingpins and Department of Treasury officials will track drug money.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano stated the plan exemplifies “two very clear objectives.” They are:
1. Providing assistance to Mexican President Felipe Calderon.
2. Preventing drug-related violence from spilling across to the US.
US officials indicated deployments are already proving successful, with over 2,000 criminal arrests and the seizure of 8,000 lbs. of cocaine.
• From March 7 to March 13, 2009 border patrol agents seized 997 firearms and US$4.5 million.
As the operation involves extensive multi-agency cooperation, it will be coordinated from the White House through the National Security and Homeland Security councils under the bureaucracy of a broad US-Mexico portfolio.
“Mea Culpa”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited with President Calderon on March 25, 2009 to discuss the drug war and focus on bilateral policies. Secretary Clinton conveyed the United States “shared responsibility” for the conflict in an unprecedented statement:
”How could anybody conclude any differently? Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians.”
President Barack Obama is expected to visit Mexico in April 2009. During this visit he will likely impress on the Mexican government his efforts to initiate new domestic policies to reduce demand for drugs and implement substance abuse services into national health care systems.
Outlook
Violence in Mexico will continue to spread and shift in parallel with military operations in the near term. The Mexican government will solicit increased resources from the US and other neighbors to sustain its war on drugs.
We believe the recent deployment to the US-Mexico border is a step in what will be a long-term process. The US will introduce further initiatives and funding to support this measure, largely focusing on strengthening border security and intensifying seizures of narcotics and arms traveling from the US into Mexico.
Of note, we believe the US government is formulating a “contingency plan” for added deployment if drug-related violence were to erupt in the United States. However, we do not foresee this escalation in the near-term.
