Highlights
– Thousands of protesters will disrupt business operations throughout the week
– Deviant elements likely to carry out sporadic acts of vandalism
– Authorities and businesses remain on a heightened alert for attempted terrorist attacks
Large-scale demonstrations threaten to gridlock public services and disrupt business continuity for 300,000 workers in central London’s financial district starting April 1, 2009. London police expect a massive turnout for a range of public protests throughout the week, including a demonstration against the financial sector and the London Stock Exchange on April 1-2, protests targeting Canary Wharf and the BT Tower, as well as a protest targeting the meeting of leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) nations at the Excel Centre in East London’s Canning Town on April 2, 2009. Protesters are planning to set up choke points around Canning Town to disrupt routes for high-level public officials and heads of state planning to attend.
Threats of Vandalism
Despite pledges from most participating organizations to protest peacefully, financial institutions and well-recognized retail chains face a serious threat of vandalism.
• Extreme activist groups have vowed to demonstrate against high-profile buildings that symbolize capitalism, industry, and energy inefficiency.
• Public protesters may also look to provoke bankers or other workers in the financial district of London to engage in physical confrontations. The recent attack on the home of former Royal Bank of Scotland chairman Sir Fred Goodwin and a confrontation targeting Business Secretary Lord Mandelson underlines the emerging threat against bank premises and senior employees working in the financial sector.
More than 40,000 people marched through London on March 28, 2009 resulting in minimal signs of public service disruption, violence or arrests. Nevertheless, the fluidity and stability of the ensuing demonstrations are unpredictable, making it difficult for police to contain sporadic violence. We believe anarchist and deviant elements will look to infiltrate peaceful demonstrations and commit disruptive and unlawful actions throughout the week’s demonstrations.
Prestige, Massive Crowds Invite Terror Plots
Scotland Yard is investigating several potential threats ahead of the G20 summit in east London. On March 30, police arrested five suspects under Anti-Terror laws, but authorities suspect the political activists are not linked to any terrorist organization. Police uncovered anarchist paraphernalia, imitation firearms and small-scale explosives constructed out of old fireworks. The alleged plot is more likely a scheme to cause chaos for a political cause rather than to cause injury or death.
The investigation underlines a potential vulnerability for the demonstrations as authorities expect hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets over a four-day span. Terrorist plots are often designed to inflict mass casualties, targeting public places and large crowds. In addition, the attendance of western heads of state may also provoke a terrorist cell to attempt an attack to undermine the event’s agenda. Britain’s last major world summit occurred in July 2005, the same month a homegrown terror cell carried out the July 7, 2005 Tube bombings in central London .
Operation Glencoe
Under the G20 security strategy, named “Operation Glencoe”, approximately 5,000 police will be armed with Taser stun guns around the city, while another 35,000 will be on standby at various locations, including luxury hotels and the financial district. Police will set up a “Ring of Steel” around the Excel venue, limiting pedestrian access in Canning Town. Patrol boats will boost security on the Thames for floating bombs or a seaborne attack similar to that of the November 2008 attacks. Major hotels in London have also raised security measures.
The Home Secretary affirmed that while there is no indication of a specific plot against the G-20 summit, a cell could strike “without warning at any time” (Source). Small-scale clashes with police are more than likely to occur, given the considerable scope and numerous protest locations around the city. The threat of a terrorist attack currently sits at “severe”, indicating that an attack is highly likely. The G20’s psychological and economic significance, coupled with the chaotic cover provided by the demonstrations, create a desired environment for a potential terrorist plot. We believe these circumstances increase the probability a terrorist cell will attempt an attack in Britain this week.