Highlights
– Train wreck in Dodoma, Tanzania kills 15 people
– Police believe crash was deliberate to steal petrol from fuel tanks
– Desperate Tanzanians seek drastic ways to make money in the near to medium-term
On March 29, 2009, at least fifteen people died after a passenger train rammed into a stationary cargo train outside Dodoma in central Tanzania. Local police arrested seven suspects, including the cargo train driver and the stationmaster. Officials believe the train wreck was caused intentionally to steal petrol from the train’s fuel tanks. Initial investigations have not lead to any sign of foreign or terrorist-related involvement at this time.
There has been no such previous incident for the sake of stealing oil, or any resource, that was as dire as this week’s train crash in Tanzania. Various economic indices point to consistent macroeconomic stability and strong growth in Tanzania. They predict that the country will continue to see growth in the coming years. But the challenge for President Jakaya Kikwete and his government remains to translate these successes into a noticeable increase in employment and improvements in living conditions. With no immediate sign of any terrorist or foreign involvement, we believe the incident was a drastic measure taken, in the absence of economic opportunity and lack of welfare improvements, to provide quick wealth to those involved in the crash.
Economic Growth Has Not Trickled Down
At a conference in Dar el Salam, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called Tanzania a “good example of Africa’s success story.” He said that the economy was in severe distress 25 years ago, plagued by widespread shortages and high inflation. Today, however, Tanzania “looks radically different.” Inflation is under control, and according to the IMF, economic growth has averaged seven percent per year since 2000, increasing real per capita income by 50 percent. Agriculture is booming despite the economic downturn and foreign investment looks promising.
Despite these gains, the majority of Tanzanians still suffer from mass unemployment and poor living conditions. Social welfare programs need repair, and the general public lacks widespread trust in the government. Tanzania may appear prosperous on paper, but its people still require adequate housing, employment, and decent health care. Desperate Tanzanians may resort to extreme measures in order to earn a living or make some fast cash in the near to medium term.
Forecast: Growth And Unrest Continue
Economists project more growth for Tanzania. Its economy depends largely on agriculture, mining, and tourists visiting its wildlife parks and beach resorts, which combine to make the country one of the more appealing frontier markets in the region. The primary fiscal challenge for Tanzania will be food-driven inflation, which will directly affect civil society.
Further unrest is expected in Tanzania, as the government lacks a sustainable long-term economic and political reform plan. Corruption and unequal wealth distribution plague the country and may be the underlying source for radical criminal behavior. We anticipate further acts of extreme crime in the near to medium-term, should the government prolong its disregard for the social wellbeing of its people.
