Highlights
– Washington, Tokyo and Seoul temper rhetoric as missile launch approaches
– Moscow and Beijing remain on the sidelines and unlikely to apply pressure
– Successful launch a likely boon for North Korean arms exports
On Friday, Japan’s parliament granted its military the authority to shoot down any missiles or rockets that may be launched from the Korean peninsula in the coming days should one pass over Japanese territory. The move follows claims that United States (US) spy satellites detected what appeared to be a Taepodong-2 missile emplaced at the Musudan-ri launching site, near North Korea’s northeastern coast.
North Korea had previously announced its intention to launch a satellite; an action strongly condemned by the US, Japan and South Korea. Recently, however, all three have taken a more restrained tone towards the potential launch, suggesting a wait and see approach toward the actions of the communist state.
US, Japan and South Korea Temper Threats to Shoot Down Missile
US, Japan and South Korea have all tempered their rhetoric regarding Pyongyang’s scheduled launch of an alleged ‘communications satellite’ next week.
On Sunday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that the US had no plans to shoot down the missile. The statements come as Japanese, South Korean and US missile-destroying ships set sail to monitor next week’s scheduled launch.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said on Monday that his government opposes any military response to the North’s launch, indicating it would be unhelpful in talks on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program.
Because of the projected flight path of the missile, Japan remains in the greatest danger from a misfire or from falling debris. Tokyo has granted the military permission to shoot down any missile or debris that may threaten Japanese interests. Short of arguing North Korea should not avoid punishment for its planned missile test, Japan has refrained from issuing any aggressive military rhetoric in response to the test.
It appears that Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have all tempered their responses to a potential missile test as the groundwork for future negotiations. Recognizing that China and Russia would prevent any serious United Nations resolutions from passing at the Security Council, the trio is likely attempting to mollify Pyongyang to the extent possible in an attempt to make headway over stalled six-party talks.
With the threat of fallout from the missile test low – and the chance that the test may yet end in failure – the three governments have likely recognized that further antagonizing Kim Jong Il will reap few rewards in the near-term.
China and Russia Voice Concern, Little Action
While the US, Japan and South Korea have repeatedly threatened to petition the United Nations (UN) Security Council to impose additional sanctions on North Korea should it attempt a launch, China and Russia have been more reluctant, though not necessarily against, additional UN sanctions. Without Russian and Chinese pressure, the elite in North Korea will remain empowered and largely free from the effects of UN sanctions.
As the political fallout that Moscow and Beijing will face over a successful launch remains low, there is little reason for either country to put pressure on Pyongyang to change its ways in the near-term. Short of mild platitudes over the spread of missile technology, we expect neither China nor Russia to do much to halt next week’s missile test.
Outlook
We expect the launch to go forward as planned. In response, the US, Japan and South Korea will attempt to tighten sanctions already in place against North Korea. The sanctions will have little effect on the regime’s ability to operate. China and Russia will prevent any serious sanctions from being passed at the United Nations Security Council, but a statement of concern will likely win approval. We note that a successful launch could pose a problem for nonproliferation advocates. Should North Korea conduct a successful test, Pyongyang will likely benefit from the follow-on weapons sales that would take place, namely to Iran.
